Riskiest State Rank State Population Model Est'd Active Infections per 100k Current Reproduction Rate (Rt) Hyp. Pre-Immunity Rt Vaccine Hesitant, % of Adults Daily Vaccines Initiated Vaccines Initiated, % of Pop. Vaccine & Acquired Immunity, % of Pop. Forecasted Date Herd Immunity Achieved Days to Hospital Capacity Total Cases per 100k 14-Day Avg Daily Cases per 100k Positivity Rate Total Deaths per 100k 14-Day Avg Daily Deaths per 100k Hospitalized per 100k 14-Day Avg Daily Hosp Admits per 100k
1 Alaska 731,545 1,052 000.970.97 🟢 4.11 000000020%20% 0000000448448 000000058%58% 000000076%76% 211014October 14, 2021 121120+ 🟢 20,540 00000019.919.9 0000010.4%10.4% 81 0.3 0000029.2529.25 3.70
2 West Virginia 1,792,147 601 000.890.89 🟢 2.48 000000020%20% 0000000584584 000000049%49% 000000064%64% 211109November 09, 2021 121120+ 🟢 16,403 00000049.449.4 0000011.6%11.6% 229 1.3 0000045.9845.98 7.28
3 Wyoming 578,759 593 000.940.94 🟢 2.22 000000031%31% 0000000610610 000000050%50% 000000058%58% 211106November 06, 2021 121120+ 🟢 13,269 00000037.637.6 0000011.0%11.0% 187 0.5 0000039.0539.05 9.90
4 Montana 1,068,778 541 000.900.90 🟢 2.38 000000024%24% 0000000771771 000000056%56% 000000063%63% 211014October 14, 2021 121120+ 🟢 17,657 00000044.044.0 0000017.1%17.1% 199 0.5 0000044.8244.82 11.88
5 North Dakota 762,062 527 000.960.96 🟢 2.26 000000029%29% 0000000665665 000000052%52% 000000059%59% 211112November 12, 2021 121120+ 🟢 15,557 00000032.532.5 0000009.9%9.9% 220 0.5 0000035.6935.69 6.31
6 South Dakota 884,659 447 000.890.89 🟢 2.67 000000021%21% 0000000816816 000000061%61% 000000067%67% 211019October 19, 2021 121120+ 🟢 11,165 00000031.131.1 0000018.4%18.4% 247 0.2 0000022.0422.04 4.38
7 Hawaii 1,415,872 445 000.760.76 🟢 6.82 000000010%10% 0000000749749 000000078%78% 000000089%89% 210915September 15, 2021 -30-30 🟥 6,277 00000006.76.7 0000003.1%3.1% 61 0.3 0000007.357.35 1.75
8 Utah 3,205,958 433 000.960.96 🟢 2.62 000000014%14% 000003,0723,072 000000060%60% 000000064%64% 211005October 05, 2021 121120+ 🟢 19,171 00000029.029.0 0000011.1%11.1% 96 0.2 0000016.4116.41 2.46
9 Arizona 7,278,717 387 000.880.88 🟢 2.82 000000018%18% 000005,3675,367 000000060%60% 000000069%69% 211003October 03, 2021 121120+ 🟢 15,863 00000017.517.5 0000010.7%10.7% 282 0.3 0000023.6923.69 4.03
10 Delaware 973,764 357 000.880.88 🟢 3.07 000000013%13% 0000000918918 000000068%68% 000000072%72% 211005October 05, 2021 121120+ 🟢 16,253 00000034.034.0 0000007.4%7.4% 209 0.4 0000021.1621.16 5.68
11 Pennsylvania 12,801,989 351 000.930.93 🟢 3.68 000000015%15% 000024,77624,776 000000076%76% 000000075%75% 211008October 08, 2021 121120+ 🟢 11,873 00000024.124.1 0000009.2%9.2% 238 0.5 0000026.3626.36 6.01
12 Michigan 9,986,857 335 001.021.02 2.87 000000019%19% 0000-1,368-1,368 000000058%58% 000000065%65% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 13,148 00000033.333.3 0000009.3%9.3% 230 0.3 0000022.2522.25 2.97
13 Nevada 3,080,156 330 000.900.90 🟢 2.77 000000019%19% 000003,0673,067 000000062%62% 000000068%68% 210930September 30, 2021 121120+ 🟢 17,995 00000017.117.1 0000009.1%9.1% 241 0.5 0000009.749.74 4.42
14 Kentucky 4,467,673 326 000.860.86 🟢 3.09 000000019%19% 000003,7413,741 000000062%62% 000000072%72% 210917September 17, 2021 121120+ 🟢 16,105 00000021.421.4 0000008.8%8.8% 208 0.2 0000028.2728.27 5.47
15 Nebraska 1,934,408 306 000.890.89 🟢 2.52 000000018%18% 000001,2421,242 000000060%60% 000000065%65% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 15,217 00000008.98.9 0000010.8%10.8% 150 0.2 0000020.3720.37 3.37
16 Indiana 6,732,219 297 000.900.90 🟢 2.29 000000018%18% 000004,4714,471 000000053%53% 000000061%61% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 15,941 00000020.220.2 0000010.9%10.9% 241 0.2 0000022.9922.99 4.40
17 Alabama 4,903,185 283 000.870.87 🟢 3.16 000000021%21% 000003,2263,226 000000054%54% 000000070%70% 211029October 29, 2021 121120+ 🟢 15,702 00000011.111.1 0000009.3%9.3% 310 0.5 0000017.8517.85 3.58
18 Arkansas 3,017,804 279 000.900.90 🟢 2.60 000000021%21% 000001,8481,848 000000057%57% 000000065%65% 210919September 19, 2021 121120+ 🟢 10,450 00000009.09.0 0000006.4%6.4% 272 1.0 0000016.7316.73 4.50
19 Maine 1,344,212 277 001.131.13 🟥 4.48 000000012%12% 0000000942942 000000075%75% 000000075%75% 211124November 24, 2021 121120+ 🟢 6,056 00000018.618.6 0000005.4%5.4% 81 0.3 0000016.0716.07 2.67
20 Colorado 5,758,736 271 000.980.98 🟢 3.00 000000015%15% 000003,4723,472 000000067%67% 000000068%68% 211213December 13, 2021 121120+ 🟢 12,332 00000028.628.6 0000007.5%7.5% 137 0.3 0000019.9319.93 4.45
21 New Mexico 2,096,829 263 001.011.01 4.34 000000015%15% 000001,6561,656 000000074%74% 000000077%77% 211031October 31, 2021 121120+ 🟢 15,146 00000027.427.4 0000009.5%9.5% 235 0.2 0000017.7917.79 3.05
22 Oregon 4,217,737 258 000.900.90 🟢 3.00 000000015%15% 000002,8582,858 000000068%68% 000000071%71% 211016October 16, 2021 121120+ 🟢 7,454 00000017.617.6 0000006.9%6.9% 99 0.5 0000015.6215.62 2.90
23 Idaho 1,787,065 256 000.700.70 🟢 1.53 000000025%25% 000001,4331,433 000000048%48% 000000055%55% 220301March 01, 2022 121120+ 🟢 20,012 00000050.950.9 0000018.6%18.6% 182 1.1 0000033.0233.02 3.93
24 New Hampshire 1,359,711 236 001.051.05 3.88 000000014%14% 000002,6142,614 000000073%73% 000000072%72% 211106November 06, 2021 121120+ 🟢 7,845 00000027.427.4 0000006.0%6.0% 112 0.2 0000014.1914.19 2.21
25 Iowa 3,155,070 233 000.890.89 🟢 2.54 000000020%20% 000001,5591,559 000000059%59% 000000065%65% 211016October 16, 2021 121120+ 🟢 14,860 00000023.623.6 0000012.0%12.0% 214 0.2 0000019.3019.30 3.35
26 Wisconsin 5,822,434 232 000.860.86 🟢 2.56 000000017%17% 000004,1094,109 000000062%62% 000000067%67% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 15,774 00000030.530.5 0000008.9%8.9% 157 0.2 0000020.0620.06 4.34
27 Missouri 6,137,428 231 000.910.91 🟢 2.50 000000015%15% 000004,7594,759 000000056%56% 000000063%63% 211207December 07, 2021 121120+ 🟢 14,749 00000007.67.6 0000007.8%7.8% 193 0.2 0000018.3518.35 4.40
28 Kansas 2,913,314 221 000.920.92 🟢 2.69 000000019%19% 000002,6012,601 000000061%61% 000000066%66% 211023October 23, 2021 121120+ 🟢 13,430 00000017.717.7 0000008.5%8.5% 212 0.2 0000016.1016.10 4.38
29 Minnesota 5,639,632 220 000.830.83 🟢 2.55 000000011%11% 000003,2853,285 000000064%64% 000000068%68% 211107November 07, 2021 121120+ 🟢 19,607 00000040.740.7 0000009.1%9.1% 151 0.3 0000018.6918.69 2.64
30 Ohio 11,689,100 214 000.800.80 🟢 2.08 000000021%21% 000007,7637,763 000000055%55% 000000062%62% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 11,113 00000023.423.4 0000010.8%10.8% 200 0.5 0000029.8129.81 5.46
31 Georgia 10,617,423 212 000.750.75 🟢 2.02 000000022%22% 000007,4907,490 000000056%56% 000000064%64% 211217December 17, 2021 -30-30 🟥 11,545 00000008.78.7 0000006.9%6.9% 262 0.8 0000019.8519.85 4.51
32 Texas 28,995,881 208 000.770.77 🟢 2.35 000000017%17% 000020,78320,783 000000061%61% 000000068%68% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 15,131 00000011.311.3 0000007.7%7.7% 234 0.7 0000019.3919.39 3.93
33 New York 19,453,561 205 000.960.96 🟢 3.67 000000013%13% 000017,26617,266 000000073%73% 000000073%73% 211130November 30, 2021 121120+ 🟢 14,293 00000017.617.6 0000003.0%3.0% 287 0.2 0000012.1512.15 2.09
34 Tennessee 6,829,174 182 000.760.76 🟢 1.98 000000024%24% 000005,0715,071 000000054%54% 000000062%62% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 15,266 00000010.910.9 0000010.6%10.6% 233 0.3 0000022.3522.35 2.84
35 North Carolina 10,488,084 177 000.830.83 🟢 2.38 000000018%18% 000016,28916,289 000000062%62% 000000066%66% 211130November 30, 2021 121120+ 🟢 13,636 00000019.219.2 0000007.0%7.0% 166 0.4 0000018.8618.86 3.23
36 Virginia 8,535,519 164 000.750.75 🟢 2.72 000000014%14% 000007,8867,886 000000070%70% 000000073%73% 211023October 23, 2021 121120+ 🟢 13,676 00000014.814.8 0000007.9%7.9% 157 0.4 0000017.0217.02 3.85
37 Mississippi 2,976,149 162 000.870.87 🟢 2.43 000000027%27% 000001,9831,983 000000051%51% 000000061%61% 220110January 10, 2022 121120+ 🟢 7,937 00000005.55.5 0000007.7%7.7% 333 0.4 0000012.9412.94 1.72
38 Rhode Island 1,059,361 152 001.031.03 4.47 000000013%13% 000001,2261,226 000000077%77% 000000076%76% 211103November 03, 2021 121120+ 🟢 19,126 00000016.316.3 0000001.8%1.8% 270 0.1 0000010.1010.10 1.27
39 Oklahoma 3,956,971 148 000.800.80 🟢 2.20 000000021%21% 000003,5563,556 000000058%58% 000000064%64% 210926September 26, 2021 121120+ 🟢 15,387 00000008.78.7 0000011.2%11.2% 239 0.4 0000017.9417.94 5.71
40 Vermont 623,989 141 001.021.02 5.06 000000007%7% 0000000491491 000000079%79% 000000077%77% 211224December 24, 2021 121120+ 🟢 8,376 00000036.536.5 0000003.7%3.7% 52 0.2 0000006.736.73 1.92
41 Illinois 12,671,821 140 000.850.85 🟢 2.95 000000015%15% 000012,41012,410 000000069%69% 000000072%72% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 12,737 00000012.012.0 0000002.4%2.4% 223 0.2 0000011.1911.19 3.56
42 South Carolina 5,148,714 139 000.710.71 🟢 1.96 000000018%18% 000004,5764,576 000000057%57% 000000065%65% 211101November 01, 2021 121120+ 🟢 18,008 00000018.318.3 0000006.3%6.3% 258 0.5 0000018.9818.98 2.86
43 District of Columbia 705,749 137 000.790.79 🟢 2.68 000000010%10% 0000000831831 000000073%73% 000000072%72% 210918September 18, 2021 121120+ 🟢 12,867 00000020.120.1 0000001.6%1.6% 168 0.0 0000014.1714.17 8.05
44 Washington 7,614,893 131 000.730.73 🟢 2.81 000000011%11% 000006,5616,561 000000068%68% 000000075%75% 210926September 26, 2021 121120+ 🟢 7,016 00000013.813.8 0000010.5%10.5% 108 0.4 0000016.5216.52 3.72
45 New Jersey 8,882,190 131 000.880.88 🟢 3.42 000000012%12% 000008,2588,258 000000074%74% 000000075%75% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 13,279 00000012.712.7 0000004.0%4.0% 312 0.2 0000010.4810.48 2.39
46 Maryland 6,045,680 115 000.700.70 🟢 2.57 000000012%12% 000004,9534,953 000000072%72% 000000073%73% 211001October 01, 2021 121120+ 🟢 18,593 00000019.719.7 0000004.8%4.8% 177 0.2 0000015.1815.18 4.13
47 Louisiana 4,648,794 108 000.690.69 🟢 1.88 000000023%23% 000003,1683,168 000000053%53% 000000064%64% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 15,035 00000004.94.9 0000002.9%2.9% 308 0.4 0000007.727.72 1.47
48 Connecticut 3,565,287 108 001.181.18 🟥 4.86 000000010%10% 000003,6413,641 000000078%78% 000000076%76% 220109January 09, 2022 121120+ 🟢 14,571 00000004.64.6 0000002.5%2.5% 245 0.1 0000007.667.66 1.53
49 Massachusetts 6,892,503 94 000.930.93 🟢 3.98 000000007%7% 000006,6656,665 000000079%79% 000000077%77% 211021October 21, 2021 121120+ 🟢 13,323 00000013.913.9 0000001.9%1.9% 273 0.2 0000007.117.11 1.77
50 California 39,512,223 74 000.750.75 🟢 2.85 000000011%11% 000040,67640,676 000000073%73% 000000074%74% 210916September 16, 2021 121120+ 🟢 12,162 00000008.68.6 0000002.4%2.4% 178 0.0 0000010.1510.15 1.92
51 Florida 21,477,737 69 000.740.74 🟢 2.89 000000020%20% 000017,96517,965 000000068%68% 000000075%75% 210829August 29, 2021 121120+ 🟢 19,911 00000010.110.1 0000004.9%4.9% 271 0.1 0000013.2813.28 2.60