Riskiest State Rank State Population Model Est'd Active Infections per 100k Current Reproduction Rate (Rt) Hyp. Pre-Immunity Rt Vaccine Hesitant, % of Adults Daily Vaccines Initiated Vaccines Initiated, % of Pop. Vaccine & Acquired Immunity, % of Pop. Forecasted Date Herd Immunity Achieved Days to Hospital Capacity Total Cases per 100k 14-Day Avg Daily Cases per 100k Positivity Rate Total Deaths per 100k 14-Day Avg Daily Deaths per 100k Hospitalized per 100k 14-Day Avg Daily Hosp Admits per 100k
1 South Dakota 884,659 1,895 001.271.27 🟥 9.45 000000021%21% 0000000877877 000000072%72% 000000087%87% 220113January 13, 2022 121120+ 🟢 14,914 00000072.672.6▲ 0000029.7%29.7%▲ 286 0.4▼ 0000038.8938.89▲ 7.23▲
2 Utah 3,205,958 1,247 001.351.35 🟥 5.89 000000014%14% 000001,7331,733 000000068%68% 000000077%77% 220131January 31, 2022 121120+ 🟢 24,239 00000135.5135.5▲ 0000030.1%30.1%▲ 123 0.3▲ 0000021.4621.46▲ 3.34▲
3 North Dakota 762,062 1,202 001.291.29 🟥 5.13 000000029%29% 0000000425425 000000063%63% 000000076%76% 220129January 29, 2022 121120+ 🟢 18,753 00000052.852.8▲ 0000017.0%17.0%▲ 268 0.3▶ 0000032.9432.94▲ 5.26▲
4 Hawaii 1,415,872 1,201 001.091.09 ▶ 46.10 000000010%10% 0000000nannan 000000nan%nan% 000000098%98% 220103January 03, 2022 -24-24 🟥 8,503 00000064.664.6▶ 0000021.6%21.6%▲ 78 0.1▶ 0000024.3724.37▲ 4.79▲
5 Nevada 3,080,156 1,155 001.191.19 🟥 5.22 000000019%19% 000003,5003,500 000000071%71% 000000078%78% 220131January 31, 2022 121120+ 🟢 22,727 00000125.0125.0▲ 0000038.0%38.0%▲ 279 0.4▶ 0000052.1452.14▲ 9.56▲
6 Delaware 973,764 1,143 001.061.06 ▶ 6.90 000000013%13% 0000000969969 000000078%78% 000000085%85% 220111January 11, 2022 121120+ 🟢 23,763 00000182.1182.1▲ 0000028.8%28.8%▲ 244 0.7▲ 0000083.8083.80▲ 13.06▲
7 Michigan 9,986,857 1,122 001.081.08 ▶ 4.22 000000019%19% 000006,4446,444 000000064%64% 000000075%75% 220123January 23, 2022 121120+ 🟢 20,859 00000149.2149.2▲ 0000031.6%31.6%▲ 305 1.0▼ 0000048.7448.74▲ 6.21▲
8 Arizona 7,278,717 1,112 001.271.27 🟥 5.11 000000018%18% 000007,0707,070 000000068%68% 000000076%76% 220131January 31, 2022 121120+ 🟢 20,871 00000109.5109.5▲ 0000029.1%29.1%▲ 343 0.8▼ 0000043.9143.91▲ 7.12▲
9 New York 19,453,561 1,107 000.970.97 🟢 6.04 000000013%13% 000025,96225,962 000000086%86% 000000085%85% 220114January 14, 2022 121120+ 🟢 23,039 00000251.1251.1▲ 0000030.0%30.0%▲ 313 0.7▲ 0000069.2769.27▲ 9.66▲
10 Indiana 6,732,219 1,094 001.131.13 🟥 3.67 000000018%18% 000005,2625,262 000000059%59% 000000069%69% 220126January 26, 2022 121120+ 🟢 20,728 00000096.296.2▲ 0000032.5%32.5%▲ 298 1.1▲ 0000050.4950.49▲ 8.54▲
11 Mississippi 2,976,149 1,068 001.171.17 🟥 3.40 000000027%27% 0000000912912 000000056%56% 000000067%67% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 10,989 00000113.5113.5▲ 0000043.0%43.0%▲ 356 0.3▲ 0000045.0945.09▲ 6.41▲
12 Rhode Island 1,059,361 1,037 001.251.25 🟥 10.08 000000013%13% 000002,0752,075 000000091%91% 000000089%89% 220115January 15, 2022 01515 🟥 27,668 00000193.7193.7▲ 0000016.7%16.7%▲ 297 0.5▶ 0000047.3947.39▲ 7.10▲
13 Colorado 5,758,736 1,025 001.171.17 🟥 5.87 000000015%15% 000004,0524,052 000000075%75% 000000081%81% 220122January 22, 2022 121120+ 🟢 19,345 00000184.6184.6▲ 0000026.9%26.9%▲ 183 0.4▼ 0000029.0929.09▲ 7.52▲
14 Missouri 6,137,428 996 001.111.11 🟥 4.08 000000015%15% 000004,9704,970 000000063%63% 000000073%73% 220127January 27, 2022 121120+ 🟢 19,685 00000125.2125.2▲ 0000030.8%30.8%▲ 270 0.6▲ 0000060.5860.58▲ 9.28▲
15 Pennsylvania 12,801,989 984 001.081.08 ▶ 7.76 000000015%15% 000019,32519,325 000000080%80% 000000087%87% 220112January 12, 2022 121120+ 🟢 17,339 00000119.5119.5▲ 0000033.1%33.1%▲ 298 0.8▼ 0000063.9063.90▲ 10.49▲
16 Kansas 2,913,314 949 001.221.22 🟥 5.56 000000019%19% 000002,6932,693 000000070%70% 000000079%79% 220127January 27, 2022 121120+ 🟢 17,494 00000103.5103.5▲ 0000028.5%28.5%▲ 245 0.3▲ 0000043.0143.01▲ 8.21▲
17 Arkansas 3,017,804 946 001.241.24 🟥 4.05 000000021%21% 000002,3022,302 000000064%64% 000000070%70% 220213February 13, 2022 121120+ 🟢 12,870 00000090.290.2▲ 0000027.7%27.7%▲ 311 0.6▲ 0000039.6639.66▲ 8.68▲
18 Nebraska 1,934,408 923 001.321.32 🟥 5.03 000000018%18% 000001,2371,237 000000067%67% 000000074%74% 220206February 06, 2022 121120+ 🟢 17,211 00000047.147.1▲ 0000033.4%33.4%▲ 182 0.7▲ 0000036.4536.45▲ 5.23▲
19 Illinois 12,671,821 909 001.021.02 ▶ 4.51 000000015%15% 000016,80716,807 000000074%74% 000000078%78% 220117January 17, 2022 121120+ 🟢 18,662 00000145.1145.1▲ 0000019.1%19.1%▲ 254 0.7▲ 0000057.7957.79▲ 9.15▲
20 Iowa 3,155,070 895 001.291.29 🟥 4.94 000000020%20% 000001,8021,802 000000066%66% 000000074%74% 220208February 08, 2022 121120+ 🟢 19,113 00000081.381.3▲ 0000026.7%26.7%▲ 260 0.8▲ 0000031.0331.03▲ 5.65▲
21 Alaska 731,545 883 001.451.45 🟥 7.42 000000020%20% 0000000412412 000000066%66% 000000080%80% 220208February 08, 2022 121120+ 🟢 21,409 00000018.018.0▲ 0000015.9%15.9%▲ 130 0.1▼ 0000015.9915.99▲ 2.16▲
22 South Carolina 5,148,714 872 001.171.17 🟥 3.90 000000018%18% 000004,8694,869 000000064%64% 000000071%71% 220308March 08, 2022 121120+ 🟢 21,485 00000114.5114.5▲ 0000028.9%28.9%▲ 288 0.3▲ 0000041.4341.43▲ 6.80▲
23 District of Columbia 705,749 869 000.820.82 🟢 4.15 000000010%10% 0000000nannan 000000nan%nan% 000000080%80% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 25,457 00000319.2319.2▼ 0000025.4%25.4%▲ 176 0.3▲ 0000134.18134.18▲ 18.67▲
24 Wisconsin 5,822,434 825 001.131.13 🟥 4.60 000000017%17% 000004,4484,448 000000069%69% 000000075%75% 220128January 28, 2022 121120+ 🟢 22,190 00000147.4147.4▲ 0000028.1%28.1%▲ 199 0.5▼ 0000043.1943.19▲ 7.22▲
25 New Mexico 2,096,829 819 001.211.21 🟥 8.17 000000015%15% 000002,4582,458 000000082%82% 000000086%86% 220118January 18, 2022 121120+ 🟢 30,900 00000067.767.7▼ 0000020.8%20.8%▶ 290 0.7▼ 0000031.5231.52▶ 4.83▲
26 Massachusetts 6,892,503 784 001.111.11 🟥 7.51 000000007%7% 000010,59510,595 000000092%92% 000000086%86% 220116January 16, 2022 121120+ 🟢 20,309 00000185.8185.8▲ 0000021.8%21.8%▲ 302 0.6▲ 0000045.5145.51▲ 6.73▲
27 Connecticut 3,565,287 760 001.091.09 ▶ 6.88 000000010%10% 000005,1625,162 000000090%90% 000000085%85% 220201February 01, 2022 121120+ 🟢 20,667 00000166.3166.3▲ 0000028.4%28.4%▲ 265 0.6▲ 0000057.5557.55▲ 8.42▲
28 North Carolina 10,488,084 751 001.171.17 🟥 3.81 000000018%18% 0000000nannan 000000nan%nan% 000000069%69% 220225February 25, 2022 03434 ▶ 17,783 00000131.9131.9▲ 0000028.8%28.8%▲ 188 0.1▼ 0000043.2643.26▲ 6.84▲
29 Florida 21,477,737 743 001.021.02 ▶ 5.36 000000020%20% 000018,52018,520 000000076%76% 000000082%82% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 25,573 00000166.6166.6▼ 0000034.3%34.3%▲ 294 0.1▶ 0000053.9953.99▲ 10.30▲
30 Minnesota 5,639,632 742 001.191.19 🟥 5.20 000000011%11% 000003,8173,817 000000072%72% 000000077%77% 220201February 01, 2022 121120+ 🟢 28,117 00000129.9129.9▲ 0000023.0%23.0%▲ 196 0.5▼ 0000030.9930.99▲ 3.96▲
31 Oregon 4,217,737 735 001.281.28 🟥 5.92 000000015%15% 000003,0833,083 000000075%75% 000000079%79% 220206February 06, 2022 121120+ 🟢 10,040 00000080.980.9▲ 0000019.1%19.1%▲ 139 0.3▲ 0000020.2020.20▲ 3.80▲
32 Tennessee 6,829,174 721 001.021.02 ▶ 3.58 000000024%24% 000003,4643,464 000000059%59% 000000072%72% 220420April 20, 2022 121120+ 🟢 16,766 00000028.128.1▲ 0000038.1%38.1%▲ 311 0.4▼ 0000046.9046.90▲ 6.13▲
33 Kentucky 4,467,673 720 001.111.11 🟥 4.23 000000019%19% 000002,7502,750 000000063%63% 000000074%74% 220208February 08, 2022 121120+ 🟢 19,956 00000089.489.4▲ 0000025.9%25.9%▲ 279 0.3▲ 0000052.0052.00▲ 9.78▲
34 Georgia 10,617,423 716 000.940.94 🟢 3.16 000000022%22% 000007,2677,267 000000062%62% 000000071%71% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 14,591 00000067.067.0▼ 0000037.8%37.8%▲ 300 0.3▼ 0000057.9657.96▲ 9.38▲
35 Virginia 8,535,519 708 000.970.97 🟢 5.26 000000014%14% 000008,1798,179 000000080%80% 000000082%82% 220204February 04, 2022 121120+ 🟢 17,378 00000090.590.5▲ 0000035.0%35.0%▲ 185 0.2▼ 0000046.1646.16▲ 8.87▲
36 New Jersey 8,882,190 692 000.820.82 🟢 4.90 000000012%12% 000012,01512,015 000000085%85% 000000084%84% 220120January 20, 2022 121120+ 🟢 20,347 00000171.8171.8▼ 0000034.8%34.8%▲ 335 0.6▲ 0000072.4172.41▲ 10.92▲
37 New Hampshire 1,359,711 681 001.081.08 ▶ 4.50 000000014%14% 0000000nannan 000000nan%nan% 000000076%76% 220206February 06, 2022 121120+ 🟢 13,794 00000084.384.3▲ 0000019.5%19.5%▲ 149 0.4▼ 0000033.3233.32▼ 5.10▲
38 Montana 1,068,778 645 001.301.30 🟥 4.78 000000024%24% 0000000537537 000000063%63% 000000072%72% 220220February 20, 2022 121120+ 🟢 20,425 00000041.341.3▲ 0000022.0%22.0%▲ 274 0.2▼ 0000018.1518.15▲ 7.55▲
39 Maryland 6,045,680 599 000.880.88 🟢 5.57 000000012%12% 000006,0896,089 000000082%82% 000000085%85% 220124January 24, 2022 121120+ 🟢 25,539 00000150.8150.8▼ 0000029.2%29.2%▲ 206 0.9▲ 0000063.1063.10▲ 10.59▲
40 Idaho 1,787,065 551 001.221.22 🟥 3.00 000000025%25% 0000000nannan 000000nan%nan% 000000060%60% 220320March 20, 2022 121120+ 🟢 24,425 00000074.774.7▲ 0000028.6%28.6%▲ 238 0.4▶ 0000020.3120.31▲ 2.84▲
41 Alabama 4,903,185 532 001.101.10 🟥 3.54 000000021%21% 000003,2683,268 000000059%59% 000000069%69% 220325March 25, 2022 121120+ 🟢 18,209 00000075.875.8▲ 0000036.5%36.5%▲ 340 0.1▼ 0000046.3046.30▲ 7.70▲
42 Texas 28,995,881 528 000.960.96 🟢 3.42 000000017%17% 000026,63126,631 000000068%68% 000000073%73% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 18,276 00000083.183.1▲ 0000035.1%35.1%▲ 260 0.3▲ 0000042.9042.90▲ 8.67▲
43 Maine 1,344,212 514 001.041.04 ▶ 7.56 000000012%12% 000001,3371,337 000000087%87% 000000087%87% 220109January 09, 2022 121120+ 🟢 11,576 00000089.089.0▲ 0000019.5%19.5%▲ 121 0.5▶ 0000034.7434.74▲ 4.01▲
44 Ohio 11,689,100 500 000.590.59 🟢 2.26 000000021%21% 000008,0778,077 000000061%61% 000000074%74% 220215February 15, 2022 121120+ 🟢 15,854 00000077.477.4▼ 0000028.6%28.6%▲ 260 1.0▲ 0000061.0761.07▲ 11.55▲
45 California 39,512,223 473 001.111.11 🟥 6.70 000000011%11% 000051,39251,392 000000084%84% 000000085%85% 220205February 05, 2022 121120+ 🟢 16,240 00000127.2127.2▲ 0000021.5%21.5%▲ 194 0.2▶ 0000034.2634.26▲ 5.41▲
46 West Virginia 1,792,147 451 001.131.13 🟥 6.55 000000020%20% 0000000946946 000000063%63% 000000092%92% 220105January 05, 2022 121120+ 🟢 21,895 00000112.7112.7▲ 0000022.9%22.9%▲ 306 0.6▼ 0000051.2251.22▲ 8.30▲
47 Louisiana 4,648,794 416 001.071.07 ▶ 2.77 000000023%23% 000002,9882,988 000000058%58% 000000062%62% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 19,949 00000085.685.6▲ 0000028.5%28.5%▲ 325 0.2▲ 0000039.7339.73▲ 7.31▲
48 Oklahoma 3,956,971 402 001.341.34 🟥 7.01 000000021%21% 000004,1194,119 000000067%67% 000000081%81% 220220February 20, 2022 02828 🟥 17,742 00000081.781.7▲ 0000034.3%34.3%▲ 297 0.3▼ 0000039.0239.02▲ 8.80▲
49 Wyoming 578,759 362 001.231.23 🟥 3.87 000000031%31% 0000000328328 000000057%57% 000000069%69% 220324March 24, 2022 121120+ 🟢 16,318 00000060.160.1▲ 0000018.4%18.4%▲ 274 0.8▲ 0000013.6513.65▼ 3.78▲
50 Vermont 623,989 336 001.091.09 ▶ 7.43 000000007%7% 0000000615615 000000090%90% 000000086%86% 220117January 17, 2022 121120+ 🟢 16,879 00000182.2182.2▲ 0000013.2%13.2%▲ 75 0.2▼ 0000017.3117.31▲ 4.27▲
51 Washington 7,614,893 291 000.840.84 🟢 4.12 000000011%11% 000006,1176,117 000000077%77% 000000081%81% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 10,434 00000088.788.7▲ 0000054.4%54.4%▲ 133 0.2▲ 0000029.1729.17▲ 5.04▲