Riskiest State Rank State Population Model Est'd Active Infections per 100k Current Reproduction Rate (Rt) Hyp. Pre-Immunity Rt Vaccine Hesitant, % of Adults Daily Vaccines Initiated Vaccines Initiated, % of Pop. Vaccine & Acquired Immunity, % of Pop. Forecasted Date Herd Immunity Achieved Days to Hospital Capacity Total Cases per 100k 14-Day Avg Daily Cases per 100k Positivity Rate Total Deaths per 100k 14-Day Avg Daily Deaths per 100k Hospitalized per 100k 14-Day Avg Daily Hosp Admits per 100k
1 South Dakota 884,659 1,052 001.091.09 5.02 000000021%21% 000002,1842,184 000000068%68% 000000079%79% 211205December 05, 2021 121120+ 🟢 12,906 00000024.724.7 0000015.6%15.6% 266 0.4 0000027.3627.36 5.89
2 West Virginia 1,792,147 894 001.151.15 🟥 3.24 000000020%20% 0000000413413 000000054%54% 000000065%65% 211214December 14, 2021 121120+ 🟢 18,490 00000033.333.3 0000011.3%11.3% 277 0.9 0000035.3235.32 6.61
3 Michigan 9,986,857 812 001.061.06 3.50 000000019%19% 000012,48012,480 000000062%62% 000000070%70% 220201February 01, 2022 121120+ 🟢 16,227 00000064.264.2 0000018.4%18.4% 261 0.9 0000044.8644.86 5.66
4 North Dakota 762,062 786 001.121.12 🟥 3.19 000000029%29% 0000000901901 000000059%59% 000000067%67% 211212December 12, 2021 121120+ 🟢 17,234 00000028.428.4 0000010.0%10.0% 251 0.6 0000033.4633.46 5.47
5 Illinois 12,671,821 754 001.191.19 🟥 4.94 000000015%15% 000023,22923,229 000000070%70% 000000074%74% 220102January 02, 2022 121120+ 🟢 13,923 00000029.229.2 0000005.4%5.4% 233 0.2 0000021.3421.34 4.67
6 Indiana 6,732,219 666 001.081.08 2.92 000000018%18% 000006,2376,237 000000056%56% 000000064%64% 220108January 08, 2022 121120+ 🟢 17,377 00000028.828.8 0000016.0%16.0% 263 0.5 0000036.2436.24 6.27
7 Arizona 7,278,717 612 001.041.04 3.54 000000018%18% 000010,13810,138 000000065%65% 000000071%71% 211207December 07, 2021 121120+ 🟢 17,904 00000034.534.5 0000015.0%15.0% 308 0.4 0000037.4037.40 6.08
8 Wisconsin 5,822,434 587 001.131.13 🟥 3.78 000000017%17% 000007,6417,641 000000066%66% 000000071%71% 211220December 20, 2021 121120+ 🟢 17,868 00000042.442.4 0000012.9%12.9% 174 0.4 0000028.3928.39 5.52
9 Pennsylvania 12,801,989 584 001.101.10 🟥 5.67 000000015%15% 000-33,314-33,314 000000082%82% 000000082%82% 211204December 04, 2021 121120+ 🟢 13,553 00000033.433.4 0000013.3%13.3% 264 0.5 0000035.3835.38 7.18
10 Minnesota 5,639,632 584 001.131.13 🟥 3.96 000000011%11% 000010,13210,132 000000070%70% 000000072%72% 211217December 17, 2021 121120+ 🟢 23,607 00000059.559.5 0000012.2%12.2% 173 0.6 0000030.5330.53 3.89
11 Hawaii 1,415,872 580 001.071.07 12.87 000000010%10% 000001,8271,827 000000083%83% 000000092%92% 211201December 01, 2021 -30-30 🟥 6,571 00000003.13.1 0000001.4%1.4% 72 0.1 0000003.463.46 1.20
12 Ohio 11,689,100 578 001.031.03 3.18 000000021%21% 000012,82912,829 000000059%59% 000000068%68% 211214December 14, 2021 121120+ 🟢 12,541 00000029.229.2 0000013.9%13.9% 230 0.5 0000037.4537.45 6.65
13 Colorado 5,758,736 575 001.011.01 4.09 000000015%15% 000009,4329,432 000000072%72% 000000076%76% 211128November 28, 2021 121120+ 🟢 14,787 00000033.833.8 0000009.2%9.2% 162 0.6 0000024.8724.87 5.22
14 New Hampshire 1,359,711 572 001.071.07 4.04 000000014%14% 0000000nannan 000000nan%nan% 000000074%74% 220201February 01, 2022 121120+ 🟢 10,235 00000047.247.2 0000011.3%11.3% 128 0.4 0000030.0130.01 4.89
15 Nebraska 1,934,408 568 001.101.10 🟥 3.43 000000018%18% 000002,4692,469 000000065%65% 000000068%68% 211220December 20, 2021 121120+ 🟢 15,924 00000014.414.4 0000017.1%17.1% 164 0.3 0000029.9829.98 5.10
16 Utah 3,205,958 552 001.021.02 3.30 000000014%14% 000004,7484,748 000000065%65% 000000070%70% 211202December 02, 2021 121120+ 🟢 21,057 00000027.927.9 0000010.8%10.8% 111 0.3 0000015.8515.85 2.38
17 Kentucky 4,467,673 543 001.201.20 🟥 4.47 000000019%19% 000005,2595,259 000000061%61% 000000071%71% 220113January 13, 2022 121120+ 🟢 17,269 00000024.724.7 0000009.7%9.7% 248 0.5 0000024.6924.69 5.71
18 Delaware 973,764 500 001.131.13 🟥 4.50 000000013%13% 0000000206206 000000073%73% 000000076%76% 211216December 16, 2021 121120+ 🟢 17,997 00000033.233.2 0000008.6%8.6% 225 0.3 0000029.1729.17 5.90
19 Iowa 3,155,070 499 001.151.15 🟥 3.64 000000020%20% 000003,4693,469 000000063%63% 000000069%69% 211230December 30, 2021 121120+ 🟢 16,492 00000031.031.0 0000015.1%15.1% 236 0.4 0000023.7723.77 4.29
20 Rhode Island 1,059,361 473 001.251.25 🟥 6.48 000000013%13% 000002,1862,186 000000084%84% 000000082%82% 211220December 20, 2021 121120+ 🟢 22,229 00000050.550.5 0000005.1%5.1% 278 0.2 0000015.4815.48 2.27
21 Kansas 2,913,314 468 001.201.20 🟥 4.03 000000019%19% 000004,3044,304 000000067%67% 000000071%71% 220101January 01, 2022 121120+ 🟢 14,487 00000013.513.5 0000011.8%11.8% 231 0.2 0000023.1023.10 5.35
22 Missouri 6,137,428 458 001.191.19 🟥 3.55 000000015%15% 000007,4687,468 000000060%60% 000000067%67% 220107January 07, 2022 121120+ 🟢 15,947 00000026.726.7 0000010.8%10.8% 252 0.2 0000026.9726.97 5.54
23 Montana 1,068,778 445 001.001.00 3.08 000000024%24% 000001,2801,280 000000060%60% 000000068%68% 211129November 29, 2021 121120+ 🟢 19,362 00000013.513.5 0000008.9%8.9% 256 1.3 0000018.8118.81 5.57
24 Arkansas 3,017,804 422 001.211.21 🟥 3.58 000000021%21% 000002,5032,503 000000061%61% 000000067%67% 220116January 16, 2022 121120+ 🟢 10,896 00000009.49.4 0000007.3%7.3% 288 0.2 0000015.9415.94 4.52
25 Maine 1,344,212 418 001.021.02 4.87 000000012%12% 000003,2773,277 000000083%83% 000000080%80% 211130November 30, 2021 121120+ 🟢 8,120 00000043.143.1 0000011.1%11.1% 99 0.3 0000025.4425.44 4.17
26 New York 19,453,561 390 001.161.16 🟥 5.09 000000013%13% 000032,87232,872 000000079%79% 000000078%78% 211222December 22, 2021 121120+ 🟢 15,552 00000027.427.4 0000004.9%4.9% 294 0.2 0000018.1218.12 2.83
27 Nevada 3,080,156 361 001.021.02 3.72 000000019%19% 000003,4843,484 000000067%67% 000000071%71% 211221December 21, 2021 121120+ 🟢 19,441 00000018.318.3 0000009.1%9.1% 262 0.4 0000021.5221.52 4.15
28 District of Columbia 705,749 360 001.071.07 5.84 000000010%10% 000002,2402,240 000000083%83% 000000083%83% 211203December 03, 2021 121120+ 🟢 13,819 00000017.617.6 0000001.7%1.7% 170 0.0 0000017.2917.29 7.63
29 Wyoming 578,759 342 001.031.03 2.77 000000031%31% 0000000594594 000000054%54% 000000064%64% 211207December 07, 2021 121120+ 🟢 14,901 00000015.015.0 0000006.4%6.4% 247 1.0 0000020.2220.22 4.37
30 Alabama 4,903,185 315 001.131.13 🟥 4.38 000000021%21% 000004,5474,547 000000057%57% 000000074%74% 220104January 04, 2022 121120+ 🟢 16,285 00000004.24.2 0000005.5%5.5% 330 0.0 0000009.529.52 2.66
31 Maryland 6,045,680 315 001.001.00 4.56 000000012%12% 000019,66819,668 000000078%78% 000000078%78% 211212December 12, 2021 121120+ 🟢 20,348 00000018.518.5 0000005.8%5.8% 186 0.2 0000015.3815.38 4.40
32 New Mexico 2,096,829 308 000.780.78 🟢 3.80 000000015%15% 000004,4714,471 000000078%78% 000000080%80% 211122November 22, 2021 121120+ 🟢 26,274 00000058.258.2 0000020.5%20.5% 258 0.5 0000033.6733.67 3.94
33 Tennessee 6,829,174 304 000.990.99 🟢 2.71 000000024%24% 000005,7195,719 000000057%57% 000000064%64% 211227December 27, 2021 121120+ 🟢 15,924 00000005.25.2 0000007.4%7.4% 255 0.6 0000013.6313.63 2.29
34 Connecticut 3,565,287 283 001.321.32 🟥 6.26 000000010%10% 000007,5197,519 000000085%85% 000000079%79% 220116January 16, 2022 121120+ 🟢 15,533 00000019.819.8 0000005.2%5.2% 250 0.2 0000013.6313.63 2.23
35 North Carolina 10,488,084 282 001.241.24 🟥 4.52 000000018%18% 000023,19423,194 000000071%71% 000000074%74% 211229December 29, 2021 121120+ 🟢 14,477 00000015.515.5 0000006.9%6.9% 179 0.1 0000001.431.43 2.47
36 New Jersey 8,882,190 280 001.151.15 🟥 5.14 000000012%12% 000013,20713,207 000000080%80% 000000078%78% 211226December 26, 2021 121120+ 🟢 14,255 00000021.221.2 0000006.3%6.3% 320 0.1 0000013.7713.77 2.84
37 Massachusetts 6,892,503 276 001.071.07 5.34 000000007%7% 000016,16316,163 000000087%87% 000000081%81% 211214December 14, 2021 121120+ 🟢 14,678 00000026.626.6 0000003.9%3.9% 283 0.2 0000014.0614.06 2.62
38 Oklahoma 3,956,971 269 001.151.15 🟥 3.48 000000021%21% 000005,2155,215 000000064%64% 000000068%68% 220108January 08, 2022 121120+ 🟢 15,932 00000009.39.3 0000010.4%10.4% 285 0.3 0000016.6016.60 4.91
39 Alaska 731,545 252 000.810.81 🟢 3.86 000000020%20% 0000000852852 000000063%63% 000000079%79% 211026October 26, 2021 121120+ 🟢 21,001 00000005.35.3 0000005.1%5.1% 117 0.2 0000011.0711.07 1.60
40 Vermont 623,989 248 001.121.12 🟥 5.36 000000007%7% 000001,7561,756 000000086%86% 000000080%80% 211214December 14, 2021 121120+ 🟢 11,215 00000051.951.9 0000004.4%4.4% 64 0.2 0000012.5012.50 3.33
41 Oregon 4,217,737 235 001.111.11 🟥 4.09 000000015%15% 000005,7885,788 000000072%72% 000000074%74% 211222December 22, 2021 121120+ 🟢 8,268 00000010.410.4 0000004.9%4.9% 124 0.6 0000012.0712.07 2.66
42 Texas 28,995,881 230 000.890.89 🟢 2.83 000000017%17% 000053,96553,965 000000065%65% 000000069%69% 211227December 27, 2021 121120+ 🟢 15,719 00000006.36.3 0000006.8%6.8% 251 0.2 0000011.9711.97 3.12
43 Idaho 1,787,065 227 000.930.93 🟢 2.25 000000025%25% 0000000nannan 000000nan%nan% 000000058%58% 220126January 26, 2022 121120+ 🟢 22,404 00000019.919.9 0000010.3%10.3% 222 0.5 0000016.1216.12 2.02
44 Georgia 10,617,423 220 001.231.23 🟥 3.38 000000022%22% 000009,4519,451 000000059%59% 000000064%64% 220211February 11, 2022 04141 11,890 00000003.63.6 0000004.5%4.5% 289 0.3 0000010.8710.87 2.27
45 Virginia 8,535,519 205 001.001.00 4.23 000000014%14% 000015,05815,058 000000076%76% 000000077%77% 211204December 04, 2021 121120+ 🟢 14,465 00000010.410.4 0000007.3%7.3% 173 0.2 0000013.2013.20 3.54
46 South Carolina 5,148,714 199 001.261.26 🟥 3.51 000000018%18% 000005,1605,160 000000061%61% 000000065%65% 220208February 08, 2022 07070 18,654 00000006.86.8 0000004.5%4.5% 277 0.2 0000008.048.04 1.62
47 Mississippi 2,976,149 144 001.121.12 🟥 2.98 000000027%27% 000002,1082,108 000000054%54% 000000060%60% 220303March 03, 2022 121120+ 🟢 8,258 00000004.94.9 0000007.0%7.0% 346 0.2 0000008.168.16 1.60
48 California 39,512,223 117 000.890.89 🟢 4.01 000000011%11% 000068,00068,000 000000080%80% 000000079%79% 211213December 13, 2021 121120+ 🟢 12,933 00000007.17.1 0000002.8%2.8% 187 0.2 0000008.888.88 1.86
49 Washington 7,614,893 104 000.650.65 🟢 2.59 000000011%11% 000010,95710,957 000000073%73% 000000076%76% 211222December 22, 2021 121120+ 🟢 8,024 00000009.39.3 0000006.4%6.4% 124 0.3 0000012.9012.90 3.45
50 Louisiana 4,648,794 55 000.830.83 🟢 2.06 000000023%23% 000003,3373,337 000000056%56% 000000060%60% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 15,274 00000003.13.1 0000002.6%2.6% 319 0.1 0000004.224.22 0.92
51 Florida 21,477,737 36 001.051.05 4.64 000000020%20% 000020,76120,761 000000072%72% 000000077%77% 220101January 01, 2022 121120+ 🟢 20,358 00000005.15.1 0000003.0%3.0% 287 0.0 0000005.965.96 1.57