Riskiest State Rank State Population Model Est'd Active Infections per 100k Current Reproduction Rate (Rt) Vaccine Hesitant, % of Adults Daily Vaccines Initiated Vaccines Initiated, % of Pop. Vaccine & Acquired Immunity, % of Pop. Forecasted Date Herd Immunity Achieved Days to Hospital Capacity Total Cases per 100k 14-Day Avg Daily Cases per 100k Positivity Rate Total Deaths per 100k 14-Day Avg Daily Deaths per 100k Hospitalized per 100k 14-Day Avg Daily Hosp Admits per 100k
1 Alaska 731,545 176 000.800.80 🟢 000000020%20% 0000000683683 000000047%47% 000000053%53% 210519May 19, 2021 121120+ 🟢 15,376 00000004.04.0 0000001.0%1.0% 49 0.0 0000002.872.87 0.58
2 Missouri 6,137,428 176 001.051.05 000000015%15% 000005,5845,584 000000043%43% 000000046%46% 210823August 23, 2021 08888 10,640 00000004.74.7 0000004.3%4.3% 150 0.1 0000011.0011.00 3.45
3 Arkansas 3,017,804 142 001.081.08 000000021%21% 000002,7412,741 000000040%40% 000000044%44% 210730July 30, 2021 121120+ 🟢 7,802 00000001.91.9 0000004.1%4.1% 194 0.1 0000007.267.26 2.97
4 Washington 7,614,893 135 001.011.01 000000011%11% 000013,00913,009 000000058%58% 000000055%55% 210603June 03, 2021 121120+ 🟢 4,124 00000004.34.3 0000003.0%3.0% 76 0.0 0000009.309.30 2.99
5 Louisiana 4,648,794 130 000.930.93 🟢 000000023%23% 000004,0984,098 000000037%37% 000000041%41% 210819August 19, 2021 05353 11,324 00000004.34.3 0000003.2%3.2% 229 0.1 0000006.096.09 1.33
6 Arizona 7,278,717 126 001.001.00 000000018%18% 000009,2149,214 000000047%47% 000000050%50% 210803August 03, 2021 121120+ 🟢 12,198 00000004.74.7 0000003.9%3.9% 243 0.1 0000007.277.27 2.52
7 Florida 21,477,737 126 000.890.89 🟢 000000020%20% 000035,15035,150 000000051%51% 000000050%50% 210808August 08, 2021 121120+ 🟢 13,250 00000007.37.3 0000004.0%4.0% 173 0.2 0000009.739.73 2.10
8 Idaho 1,787,065 124 001.111.11 🟥 000000025%25% 000001,2921,292 000000038%38% 000000040%40% 210903September 03, 2021 121120+ 🟢 12,780 00000005.05.0 0000004.5%4.5% 118 0.1 0000006.606.60 0.87
9 West Virginia 1,792,147 122 000.740.74 🟢 000000020%20% 000001,3551,355 000000041%41% 000000050%50% 210616June 16, 2021 121120+ 🟢 10,928 00000005.85.8 0000004.2%4.2% 159 0.2 0000011.3311.33 4.77
10 Hawaii 1,415,872 122 000.900.90 🟢 000000010%10% 000001,8611,861 000000068%68% 000000064%64% 210518May 18, 2021 121120+ 🟢 2,849 00000003.63.6 0000001.1%1.1% 35 0.0 0000005.585.58 1.03
11 Mississippi 2,976,149 108 000.960.96 🟢 000000027%27% 000002,2402,240 000000035%35% 000000041%41% 210913September 13, 2021 09090 5,323 00000001.11.1 0000003.0%3.0% 247 0.1 0000006.226.22 2.04
12 Colorado 5,758,736 103 000.900.90 🟢 000000015%15% 000008,4688,468 000000055%55% 000000053%53% 210816August 16, 2021 121120+ 🟢 9,152 00000005.95.9 0000002.5%2.5% 115 0.1 0000008.728.72 2.30
13 Montana 1,068,778 101 000.900.90 🟢 000000024%24% 000001,4131,413 000000046%46% 000000046%46% 210709July 09, 2021 121120+ 🟢 13,439 00000006.26.2 0000005.2%5.2% 153 0.2 0000005.715.71 2.53
14 Nevada 3,080,156 97 001.001.00 000000019%19% 000003,7383,738 000000047%47% 000000048%48% 210624June 24, 2021 121120+ 🟢 14,443 00000004.04.0 0000003.8%3.8% 182 0.1 0000007.347.34 2.23
15 Kansas 2,913,314 94 001.131.13 🟥 000000019%19% 000002,5472,547 000000048%48% 000000050%50% 210704July 04, 2021 121120+ 🟢 10,180 00000002.12.1 0000003.4%3.4% 175 0.1 0000004.874.87 1.55
16 District of Columbia 705,749 94 000.730.73 🟢 000000010%10% 0000000918918 000000058%58% 000000055%55% 210529May 29, 2021 121120+ 🟢 9,772 00000003.13.1 0000000.8%0.8% 161 0.1 0000016.8616.86 13.53
17 Utah 3,205,958 90 001.091.09 000000014%14% 000003,2983,298 000000046%46% 000000045%45% 210718July 18, 2021 121120+ 🟢 15,604 00000005.85.8 0000004.0%4.0% 72 0.1 0000004.374.37 0.76
18 Wyoming 578,759 90 000.920.92 🟢 000000031%31% 0000000516516 000000038%38% 000000040%40% 210918September 18, 2021 121120+ 🟢 9,097 00000006.36.3 0000004.5%4.5% 125 0.1 0000006.746.74 1.89
19 Pennsylvania 12,801,989 86 000.730.73 🟢 000000015%15% 000023,82623,826 000000060%60% 000000060%60% 210728July 28, 2021 121120+ 🟢 9,712 00000003.53.5 0000002.6%2.6% 214 0.2 0000009.319.31 3.58
20 North Dakota 762,062 81 000.870.87 🟢 000000029%29% 0000000524524 000000043%43% 000000046%46% 210804August 04, 2021 121120+ 🟢 13,088 00000002.42.4 0000002.2%2.2% 199 0.1 0000008.148.14 1.57
21 Indiana 6,732,219 81 000.720.72 🟢 000000018%18% 000007,1167,116 000000043%43% 000000046%46% 210916September 16, 2021 121120+ 🟢 12,391 00000005.15.1 0000004.1%4.1% 204 0.1 0000009.369.36 2.37
22 Delaware 973,764 81 000.760.76 🟢 000000013%13% 000001,2681,268 000000056%56% 000000055%55% 210525May 25, 2021 121120+ 🟢 12,908 00000003.83.8 0000001.9%1.9% 172 0.1 0000005.965.96 3.78
23 Maryland 6,045,680 78 000.740.74 🟢 000000012%12% 000009,1429,142 000000059%59% 000000057%57% 210623June 23, 2021 121120+ 🟢 15,537 00000003.03.0 0000001.4%1.4% 160 0.1 0000008.328.32 4.78
24 Iowa 3,155,070 78 000.930.93 🟢 000000020%20% 000002,7482,748 000000050%50% 000000051%51% 210602June 02, 2021 121120+ 🟢 11,705 00000002.42.4 0000002.6%2.6% 193 0.1 0000006.626.62 1.98
25 Kentucky 4,467,673 78 000.730.73 🟢 000000019%19% 000005,1655,165 000000047%47% 000000051%51% 210827August 27, 2021 121120+ 🟢 10,999 00000002.42.4 0000003.1%3.1% 159 0.6 0000007.347.34 3.32
26 Georgia 10,617,423 74 000.850.85 🟢 000000022%22% 000020,84620,846 000000041%41% 000000043%43% 210917September 17, 2021 07272 7,873 00000001.81.8 0000002.3%2.3% 198 0.2 0000007.717.71 2.37
27 Oregon 4,217,737 73 000.850.85 🟢 000000015%15% 000007,0947,094 000000056%56% 000000053%53% 210605June 05, 2021 121120+ 🟢 4,735 00000005.45.4 0000003.7%3.7% 64 0.1 0000006.716.71 1.75
28 Illinois 12,671,821 72 000.690.69 🟢 000000015%15% 000021,27521,275 000000056%56% 000000055%55% 210902September 02, 2021 121120+ 🟢 10,791 00000003.43.4 0000001.5%1.5% 201 0.2 0000007.227.22 3.05
29 South Dakota 884,659 68 000.820.82 🟢 000000021%21% 0000000602602 000000049%49% 000000050%50% 210611June 11, 2021 121120+ 🟢 7,906 00000002.82.8 0000004.3%4.3% 229 0.2 0000004.414.41 1.69
30 Alabama 4,903,185 65 000.880.88 🟢 000000021%21% 000001,1751,175 000000036%36% 000000042%42% 210909September 09, 2021 121120+ 🟢 11,093 00000003.33.3 0000004.9%4.9% 229 0.1 0000006.856.85 2.35
31 Texas 28,995,881 61 000.810.81 🟢 000000017%17% 000041,77841,778 000000045%45% 000000047%47% 210918September 18, 2021 09393 11,049 00000002.42.4 0000002.9%2.9% 175 0.1 0000007.147.14 2.39
32 Virginia 8,535,519 59 000.800.80 🟢 000000014%14% 000012,16612,166 000000057%57% 000000058%58% 210529May 29, 2021 121120+ 🟢 11,027 00000002.42.4 0000002.7%2.7% 132 0.1 0000005.475.47 2.67
33 Tennessee 6,829,174 56 000.770.77 🟢 000000024%24% 000004,8614,861 000000040%40% 000000044%44% 210929September 29, 2021 121120+ 🟢 11,577 00000001.91.9 0000003.2%3.2% 183 0.0 0000007.067.06 1.15
34 Ohio 11,689,100 55 000.660.66 🟢 000000021%21% 000012,60312,603 000000047%47% 000000049%49% 210920September 20, 2021 121120+ 🟢 8,208 00000002.72.7 0000002.1%2.1% 171 0.2 0000009.249.24 2.53
35 New Jersey 8,882,190 55 000.780.78 🟢 000000012%12% 000015,16815,168 000000062%62% 000000061%61% 210716July 16, 2021 121120+ 🟢 11,291 00000002.92.9 0000001.4%1.4% 296 0.1 0000004.924.92 2.05
36 New York 19,453,561 53 000.800.80 🟢 000000013%13% 000032,97232,972 000000057%57% 000000060%60% 210802August 02, 2021 121120+ 🟢 12,194 00000003.63.6 0000000.9%0.9% 273 0.1 0000006.656.65 1.40
37 New Mexico 2,096,829 52 000.840.84 🟢 000000015%15% 000002,2812,281 000000059%59% 000000057%57% 210514May 14, 2021 121120+ 🟢 12,996 00000003.23.2 0000002.0%2.0% 205 0.1 0000005.635.63 1.75
38 Maine 1,344,212 51 000.790.79 🟢 000000012%12% 000001,7471,747 000000065%65% 000000059%59% 210518May 18, 2021 121120+ 🟢 4,609 00000002.32.3 0000001.8%1.8% 63 0.1 0000007.517.51 1.60
39 Michigan 9,986,857 50 000.650.65 🟢 000000019%19% 000010,50010,500 000000050%50% 000000054%54% 210928September 28, 2021 121120+ 🟢 10,856 00000004.14.1 0000002.6%2.6% 207 0.2 0000008.738.73 1.35
40 North Carolina 10,488,084 48 000.760.76 🟢 000000018%18% 000007,8477,847 000000044%44% 000000047%47% 211001October 01, 2021 121120+ 🟢 9,445 00000003.73.7 0000002.8%2.8% 126 0.1 0000005.815.81 1.76
41 Oklahoma 3,956,971 46 000.780.78 🟢 000000021%21% 000002,8062,806 000000042%42% 000000047%47% 210727July 27, 2021 121120+ 🟢 11,974 00000001.71.7 0000004.3%4.3% 185 0.1 0000005.845.84 2.54
42 Connecticut 3,565,287 44 000.930.93 🟢 000000010%10% 000005,2995,299 000000065%65% 000000064%64% 210520May 20, 2021 121120+ 🟢 13,275 00000001.81.8 0000000.7%0.7% 232 0.1 0000003.423.42 1.61
43 New Hampshire 1,359,711 40 000.880.88 🟢 000000014%14% 000001,2771,277 000000061%61% 000000061%61% 210508May 08, 2021 121120+ 🟢 6,027 00000002.42.4 0000001.5%1.5% 100 0.1 0000002.352.35 1.11
44 California 39,512,223 39 000.980.98 🟢 000000011%11% 000073,05273,052 000000058%58% 000000057%57% 210704July 04, 2021 121120+ 🟢 9,506 00000001.61.6 0000000.7%0.7% 158 0.0 0000003.463.46 1.31
45 Rhode Island 1,059,361 39 000.660.66 🟢 000000013%13% 000001,6141,614 000000062%62% 000000062%62% 210529May 29, 2021 121120+ 🟢 17,112 00000002.42.4 0000000.7%0.7% 257 0.1 0000008.128.12 0.24
46 Minnesota 5,639,632 39 000.710.71 🟢 000000011%11% 000006,2246,224 000000055%55% 000000054%54% 210620June 20, 2021 121120+ 🟢 15,784 00000005.45.4 0000002.1%2.1% 134 0.1 0000005.555.55 0.91
47 South Carolina 5,148,714 38 000.790.79 🟢 000000018%18% 000005,2445,244 000000042%42% 000000045%45% 210911September 11, 2021 121120+ 🟢 12,182 00000002.52.5 0000002.2%2.2% 190 0.1 0000004.124.12 0.92
48 Nebraska 1,934,408 33 000.930.93 🟢 000000018%18% 000001,9321,932 000000049%49% 000000052%52% 210604June 04, 2021 121120+ 🟢 13,020 00000001.81.8 0000003.3%3.3% 117 0.0 0000003.103.10 0.83
49 Massachusetts 6,892,503 30 000.880.88 🟢 000000007%7% 000013,44313,443 000000068%68% 000000063%63% 210627June 27, 2021 121120+ 🟢 11,456 00000002.52.5 0000000.7%0.7% 260 0.1 0000002.662.66 1.33
50 Wisconsin 5,822,434 27 000.790.79 🟢 000000017%17% 000006,3586,358 000000052%52% 000000051%51% 210922September 22, 2021 121120+ 🟢 12,714 00000002.52.5 0000001.6%1.6% 137 0.3 0000003.883.88 1.49
51 Vermont 623,989 16 000.850.85 🟢 000000007%7% 0000000879879 000000072%72% 000000064%64% 210521May 21, 2021 121120+ 🟢 5,581 00000001.61.6 0000000.8%0.8% 41 0.0 0000000.160.16 0.90