Riskiest State Rank State Population Model Est'd Active Infections per 100k Current Reproduction Rate (Rt) Hyp. Pre-Immunity Rt Vaccine Hesitant, % of Adults Daily Vaccines Initiated Vaccines Initiated, % of Pop. Vaccine & Acquired Immunity, % of Pop. Forecasted Date Herd Immunity Achieved Days to Hospital Capacity Total Cases per 100k 14-Day Avg Daily Cases per 100k Positivity Rate Total Deaths per 100k 14-Day Avg Daily Deaths per 100k Hospitalized per 100k 14-Day Avg Daily Hosp Admits per 100k
1 South Dakota 884,659 1,895 001.271.27 🟥 9.45 000000021%21% 0000000877877 000000072%72% 000000087%87% 220113January 13, 2022 121120+ 🟢 14,914 00000072.672.6 0000029.7%29.7% 286 0.4 0000038.8938.89 7.23
2 Utah 3,205,958 1,247 001.351.35 🟥 5.89 000000014%14% 000001,7331,733 000000068%68% 000000077%77% 220131January 31, 2022 121120+ 🟢 24,239 00000135.5135.5 0000030.1%30.1% 123 0.3 0000021.4621.46 3.34
3 North Dakota 762,062 1,202 001.291.29 🟥 5.13 000000029%29% 0000000425425 000000063%63% 000000076%76% 220129January 29, 2022 121120+ 🟢 18,753 00000052.852.8 0000017.0%17.0% 268 0.3 0000032.9432.94 5.26
4 Hawaii 1,415,872 1,201 001.091.09 46.10 000000010%10% 0000000nannan 000000nan%nan% 000000098%98% 220103January 03, 2022 -24-24 🟥 8,503 00000064.664.6 0000021.6%21.6% 78 0.1 0000024.3724.37 4.79
5 Nevada 3,080,156 1,155 001.191.19 🟥 5.22 000000019%19% 000003,5003,500 000000071%71% 000000078%78% 220131January 31, 2022 121120+ 🟢 22,727 00000125.0125.0 0000038.0%38.0% 279 0.4 0000052.1452.14 9.56
6 Delaware 973,764 1,143 001.061.06 6.90 000000013%13% 0000000969969 000000078%78% 000000085%85% 220111January 11, 2022 121120+ 🟢 23,763 00000182.1182.1 0000028.8%28.8% 244 0.7 0000083.8083.80 13.06
7 Michigan 9,986,857 1,122 001.081.08 4.22 000000019%19% 000006,4446,444 000000064%64% 000000075%75% 220123January 23, 2022 121120+ 🟢 20,859 00000149.2149.2 0000031.6%31.6% 305 1.0 0000048.7448.74 6.21
8 Arizona 7,278,717 1,112 001.271.27 🟥 5.11 000000018%18% 000007,0707,070 000000068%68% 000000076%76% 220131January 31, 2022 121120+ 🟢 20,871 00000109.5109.5 0000029.1%29.1% 343 0.8 0000043.9143.91 7.12
9 New York 19,453,561 1,107 000.970.97 🟢 6.04 000000013%13% 000025,96225,962 000000086%86% 000000085%85% 220114January 14, 2022 121120+ 🟢 23,039 00000251.1251.1 0000030.0%30.0% 313 0.7 0000069.2769.27 9.66
10 Indiana 6,732,219 1,094 001.131.13 🟥 3.67 000000018%18% 000005,2625,262 000000059%59% 000000069%69% 220126January 26, 2022 121120+ 🟢 20,728 00000096.296.2 0000032.5%32.5% 298 1.1 0000050.4950.49 8.54
11 Mississippi 2,976,149 1,068 001.171.17 🟥 3.40 000000027%27% 0000000912912 000000056%56% 000000067%67% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 10,989 00000113.5113.5 0000043.0%43.0% 356 0.3 0000045.0945.09 6.41
12 Rhode Island 1,059,361 1,037 001.251.25 🟥 10.08 000000013%13% 000002,0752,075 000000091%91% 000000089%89% 220115January 15, 2022 01515 🟥 27,668 00000193.7193.7 0000016.7%16.7% 297 0.5 0000047.3947.39 7.10
13 Colorado 5,758,736 1,025 001.171.17 🟥 5.87 000000015%15% 000004,0524,052 000000075%75% 000000081%81% 220122January 22, 2022 121120+ 🟢 19,345 00000184.6184.6 0000026.9%26.9% 183 0.4 0000029.0929.09 7.52
14 Missouri 6,137,428 996 001.111.11 🟥 4.08 000000015%15% 000004,9704,970 000000063%63% 000000073%73% 220127January 27, 2022 121120+ 🟢 19,685 00000125.2125.2 0000030.8%30.8% 270 0.6 0000060.5860.58 9.28
15 Pennsylvania 12,801,989 984 001.081.08 7.76 000000015%15% 000019,32519,325 000000080%80% 000000087%87% 220112January 12, 2022 121120+ 🟢 17,339 00000119.5119.5 0000033.1%33.1% 298 0.8 0000063.9063.90 10.49
16 Kansas 2,913,314 949 001.221.22 🟥 5.56 000000019%19% 000002,6932,693 000000070%70% 000000079%79% 220127January 27, 2022 121120+ 🟢 17,494 00000103.5103.5 0000028.5%28.5% 245 0.3 0000043.0143.01 8.21
17 Arkansas 3,017,804 946 001.241.24 🟥 4.05 000000021%21% 000002,3022,302 000000064%64% 000000070%70% 220213February 13, 2022 121120+ 🟢 12,870 00000090.290.2 0000027.7%27.7% 311 0.6 0000039.6639.66 8.68
18 Nebraska 1,934,408 923 001.321.32 🟥 5.03 000000018%18% 000001,2371,237 000000067%67% 000000074%74% 220206February 06, 2022 121120+ 🟢 17,211 00000047.147.1 0000033.4%33.4% 182 0.7 0000036.4536.45 5.23
19 Illinois 12,671,821 909 001.021.02 4.51 000000015%15% 000016,80716,807 000000074%74% 000000078%78% 220117January 17, 2022 121120+ 🟢 18,662 00000145.1145.1 0000019.1%19.1% 254 0.7 0000057.7957.79 9.15
20 Iowa 3,155,070 895 001.291.29 🟥 4.94 000000020%20% 000001,8021,802 000000066%66% 000000074%74% 220208February 08, 2022 121120+ 🟢 19,113 00000081.381.3 0000026.7%26.7% 260 0.8 0000031.0331.03 5.65
21 Alaska 731,545 883 001.451.45 🟥 7.42 000000020%20% 0000000412412 000000066%66% 000000080%80% 220208February 08, 2022 121120+ 🟢 21,409 00000018.018.0 0000015.9%15.9% 130 0.1 0000015.9915.99 2.16
22 South Carolina 5,148,714 872 001.171.17 🟥 3.90 000000018%18% 000004,8694,869 000000064%64% 000000071%71% 220308March 08, 2022 121120+ 🟢 21,485 00000114.5114.5 0000028.9%28.9% 288 0.3 0000041.4341.43 6.80
23 District of Columbia 705,749 869 000.820.82 🟢 4.15 000000010%10% 0000000nannan 000000nan%nan% 000000080%80% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 25,457 00000319.2319.2 0000025.4%25.4% 176 0.3 0000134.18134.18 18.67
24 Wisconsin 5,822,434 825 001.131.13 🟥 4.60 000000017%17% 000004,4484,448 000000069%69% 000000075%75% 220128January 28, 2022 121120+ 🟢 22,190 00000147.4147.4 0000028.1%28.1% 199 0.5 0000043.1943.19 7.22
25 New Mexico 2,096,829 819 001.211.21 🟥 8.17 000000015%15% 000002,4582,458 000000082%82% 000000086%86% 220118January 18, 2022 121120+ 🟢 30,900 00000067.767.7 0000020.8%20.8% 290 0.7 0000031.5231.52 4.83
26 Massachusetts 6,892,503 784 001.111.11 🟥 7.51 000000007%7% 000010,59510,595 000000092%92% 000000086%86% 220116January 16, 2022 121120+ 🟢 20,309 00000185.8185.8 0000021.8%21.8% 302 0.6 0000045.5145.51 6.73
27 Connecticut 3,565,287 760 001.091.09 6.88 000000010%10% 000005,1625,162 000000090%90% 000000085%85% 220201February 01, 2022 121120+ 🟢 20,667 00000166.3166.3 0000028.4%28.4% 265 0.6 0000057.5557.55 8.42
28 North Carolina 10,488,084 751 001.171.17 🟥 3.81 000000018%18% 0000000nannan 000000nan%nan% 000000069%69% 220225February 25, 2022 03434 17,783 00000131.9131.9 0000028.8%28.8% 188 0.1 0000043.2643.26 6.84
29 Florida 21,477,737 743 001.021.02 5.36 000000020%20% 000018,52018,520 000000076%76% 000000082%82% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 25,573 00000166.6166.6 0000034.3%34.3% 294 0.1 0000053.9953.99 10.30
30 Minnesota 5,639,632 742 001.191.19 🟥 5.20 000000011%11% 000003,8173,817 000000072%72% 000000077%77% 220201February 01, 2022 121120+ 🟢 28,117 00000129.9129.9 0000023.0%23.0% 196 0.5 0000030.9930.99 3.96
31 Oregon 4,217,737 735 001.281.28 🟥 5.92 000000015%15% 000003,0833,083 000000075%75% 000000079%79% 220206February 06, 2022 121120+ 🟢 10,040 00000080.980.9 0000019.1%19.1% 139 0.3 0000020.2020.20 3.80
32 Tennessee 6,829,174 721 001.021.02 3.58 000000024%24% 000003,4643,464 000000059%59% 000000072%72% 220420April 20, 2022 121120+ 🟢 16,766 00000028.128.1 0000038.1%38.1% 311 0.4 0000046.9046.90 6.13
33 Kentucky 4,467,673 720 001.111.11 🟥 4.23 000000019%19% 000002,7502,750 000000063%63% 000000074%74% 220208February 08, 2022 121120+ 🟢 19,956 00000089.489.4 0000025.9%25.9% 279 0.3 0000052.0052.00 9.78
34 Georgia 10,617,423 716 000.940.94 🟢 3.16 000000022%22% 000007,2677,267 000000062%62% 000000071%71% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 14,591 00000067.067.0 0000037.8%37.8% 300 0.3 0000057.9657.96 9.38
35 Virginia 8,535,519 708 000.970.97 🟢 5.26 000000014%14% 000008,1798,179 000000080%80% 000000082%82% 220204February 04, 2022 121120+ 🟢 17,378 00000090.590.5 0000035.0%35.0% 185 0.2 0000046.1646.16 8.87
36 New Jersey 8,882,190 692 000.820.82 🟢 4.90 000000012%12% 000012,01512,015 000000085%85% 000000084%84% 220120January 20, 2022 121120+ 🟢 20,347 00000171.8171.8 0000034.8%34.8% 335 0.6 0000072.4172.41 10.92
37 New Hampshire 1,359,711 681 001.081.08 4.50 000000014%14% 0000000nannan 000000nan%nan% 000000076%76% 220206February 06, 2022 121120+ 🟢 13,794 00000084.384.3 0000019.5%19.5% 149 0.4 0000033.3233.32 5.10
38 Montana 1,068,778 645 001.301.30 🟥 4.78 000000024%24% 0000000537537 000000063%63% 000000072%72% 220220February 20, 2022 121120+ 🟢 20,425 00000041.341.3 0000022.0%22.0% 274 0.2 0000018.1518.15 7.55
39 Maryland 6,045,680 599 000.880.88 🟢 5.57 000000012%12% 000006,0896,089 000000082%82% 000000085%85% 220124January 24, 2022 121120+ 🟢 25,539 00000150.8150.8 0000029.2%29.2% 206 0.9 0000063.1063.10 10.59
40 Idaho 1,787,065 551 001.221.22 🟥 3.00 000000025%25% 0000000nannan 000000nan%nan% 000000060%60% 220320March 20, 2022 121120+ 🟢 24,425 00000074.774.7 0000028.6%28.6% 238 0.4 0000020.3120.31 2.84
41 Alabama 4,903,185 532 001.101.10 🟥 3.54 000000021%21% 000003,2683,268 000000059%59% 000000069%69% 220325March 25, 2022 121120+ 🟢 18,209 00000075.875.8 0000036.5%36.5% 340 0.1 0000046.3046.30 7.70
42 Texas 28,995,881 528 000.960.96 🟢 3.42 000000017%17% 000026,63126,631 000000068%68% 000000073%73% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 18,276 00000083.183.1 0000035.1%35.1% 260 0.3 0000042.9042.90 8.67
43 Maine 1,344,212 514 001.041.04 7.56 000000012%12% 000001,3371,337 000000087%87% 000000087%87% 220109January 09, 2022 121120+ 🟢 11,576 00000089.089.0 0000019.5%19.5% 121 0.5 0000034.7434.74 4.01
44 Ohio 11,689,100 500 000.590.59 🟢 2.26 000000021%21% 000008,0778,077 000000061%61% 000000074%74% 220215February 15, 2022 121120+ 🟢 15,854 00000077.477.4 0000028.6%28.6% 260 1.0 0000061.0761.07 11.55
45 California 39,512,223 473 001.111.11 🟥 6.70 000000011%11% 000051,39251,392 000000084%84% 000000085%85% 220205February 05, 2022 121120+ 🟢 16,240 00000127.2127.2 0000021.5%21.5% 194 0.2 0000034.2634.26 5.41
46 West Virginia 1,792,147 451 001.131.13 🟥 6.55 000000020%20% 0000000946946 000000063%63% 000000092%92% 220105January 05, 2022 121120+ 🟢 21,895 00000112.7112.7 0000022.9%22.9% 306 0.6 0000051.2251.22 8.30
47 Louisiana 4,648,794 416 001.071.07 2.77 000000023%23% 000002,9882,988 000000058%58% 000000062%62% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 19,949 00000085.685.6 0000028.5%28.5% 325 0.2 0000039.7339.73 7.31
48 Oklahoma 3,956,971 402 001.341.34 🟥 7.01 000000021%21% 000004,1194,119 000000067%67% 000000081%81% 220220February 20, 2022 02828 🟥 17,742 00000081.781.7 0000034.3%34.3% 297 0.3 0000039.0239.02 8.80
49 Wyoming 578,759 362 001.231.23 🟥 3.87 000000031%31% 0000000328328 000000057%57% 000000069%69% 220324March 24, 2022 121120+ 🟢 16,318 00000060.160.1 0000018.4%18.4% 274 0.8 0000013.6513.65 3.78
50 Vermont 623,989 336 001.091.09 7.43 000000007%7% 0000000615615 000000090%90% 000000086%86% 220117January 17, 2022 121120+ 🟢 16,879 00000182.2182.2 0000013.2%13.2% 75 0.2 0000017.3117.31 4.27
51 Washington 7,614,893 291 000.840.84 🟢 4.12 000000011%11% 000006,1176,117 000000077%77% 000000081%81% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 10,434 00000088.788.7 0000054.4%54.4% 133 0.2 0000029.1729.17 5.04