Riskiest State Rank State Population Model Est'd Active Infections per 100k Current Reproduction Rate (Rt) Hyp. Pre-Immunity Rt Vaccine Hesitant, % of Adults Daily Vaccines Initiated Vaccines Initiated, % of Pop. Vaccine & Acquired Immunity, % of Pop. Forecasted Date Herd Immunity Achieved Days to Hospital Capacity Total Cases per 100k 14-Day Avg Daily Cases per 100k Positivity Rate Total Deaths per 100k 14-Day Avg Daily Deaths per 100k Hospitalized per 100k 14-Day Avg Daily Hosp Admits per 100k
1 West Virginia 1,792,147 961 001.061.06 2.77 000000020%20% 0000000733733 000000048%48% 000000060%60% 211016October 16, 2021 121120+ 🟢 14,123 00000079.279.2 0000013.9%13.9% 188 0.9 0000056.4156.41 9.04
2 Alaska 731,545 926 000.800.80 🟢 2.73 000000020%20% 0000000680680 000000057%57% 000000071%71% 210907September 07, 2021 -20-20 🟥 19,901 00000026.726.7 0000010.0%10.0% 62 0.2 0000027.7527.75 4.13
3 Hawaii 1,415,872 861 000.880.88 🟢 4.83 000000010%10% 000001,3311,331 000000076%76% 000000082%82% 210905September 05, 2021 -30-30 🟥 5,714 00000029.229.2 0000007.3%7.3% 50 0.4 0000023.7323.73 4.04
4 Wyoming 578,759 785 001.031.03 2.27 000000031%31% 0000000658658 000000048%48% 000000054%54% 211024October 24, 2021 121120+ 🟢 11,755 00000050.250.2 0000011.6%11.6% 159 0.7 0000032.4832.48 10.91
5 Montana 1,068,778 729 001.101.10 🟥 2.65 000000024%24% 000001,0241,024 000000054%54% 000000059%59% 211007October 07, 2021 121120+ 🟢 15,731 00000047.647.6 0000015.3%15.3% 176 0.4 0000035.7435.74 10.79
6 Idaho 1,787,065 604 000.970.97 🟢 1.91 000000025%25% 000001,7741,774 000000046%46% 000000051%51% 220119January 19, 2022 121120+ 🟢 16,845 00000080.280.2 0000022.8%22.8% 148 0.9 0000039.7939.79 5.01
7 Arkansas 3,017,804 564 000.950.95 🟢 2.55 000000021%21% 000002,2692,269 000000055%55% 000000063%63% 210909September 09, 2021 121120+ 🟢 10,013 00000020.620.6 0000009.5%9.5% 246 0.9 0000033.3733.37 7.14
8 South Carolina 5,148,714 559 000.900.90 🟢 2.23 000000018%18% 000006,6266,626 000000054%54% 000000061%61% 211024October 24, 2021 121120+ 🟢 16,522 00000048.348.3 0000012.0%12.0% 228 0.8 0000047.7647.76 7.29
9 Kentucky 4,467,673 552 000.860.86 🟢 2.37 000000019%19% 000004,2384,238 000000060%60% 000000065%65% 210924September 24, 2021 121120+ 🟢 14,765 00000063.563.5 0000015.0%15.0% 185 0.3 0000052.3152.31 13.93
10 South Dakota 884,659 529 000.990.99 🟢 2.81 000000021%21% 0000000886886 000000058%58% 000000062%62% 211016October 16, 2021 121120+ 🟢 9,884 00000040.240.2 0000018.2%18.2% 237 0.2 0000022.8322.83 4.72
11 Georgia 10,617,423 497 000.810.81 🟢 1.97 000000022%22% 000017,75017,750 000000054%54% 000000060%60% 211203December 03, 2021 121120+ 🟢 10,817 00000031.131.1 0000015.1%15.1% 231 0.9 0000046.6246.62 7.91
12 Nevada 3,080,156 484 000.970.97 🟢 2.73 000000019%19% 000003,1003,100 000000060%60% 000000065%65% 210911September 11, 2021 121120+ 🟢 17,275 00000028.528.5 0000012.1%12.1% 222 0.6 0000032.2432.24 6.49
13 Texas 28,995,881 481 000.860.86 🟢 2.39 000000017%17% 000032,66032,660 000000059%59% 000000065%65% 211214December 14, 2021 121120+ 🟢 14,305 00000031.031.0 0000013.9%13.9% 210 0.9 0000044.3644.36 7.52
14 Alabama 4,903,185 474 000.870.87 🟢 2.15 000000021%21% 000003,9043,904 000000052%52% 000000061%61% 210918September 18, 2021 121120+ 🟢 14,837 00000033.133.1 0000017.9%17.9% 269 0.8 0000046.1746.17 8.91
15 Arizona 7,278,717 442 000.910.91 🟢 2.51 000000018%18% 000006,0366,036 000000059%59% 000000065%65% 210926September 26, 2021 121120+ 🟢 14,981 00000027.227.2 0000010.8%10.8% 268 0.5 0000026.7126.71 4.59
16 Indiana 6,732,219 425 000.930.93 🟢 2.16 000000018%18% 000005,3415,341 000000052%52% 000000058%58% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 14,886 00000037.637.6 0000014.2%14.2% 224 0.3 0000034.7034.70 6.60
17 Delaware 973,764 411 000.940.94 🟢 3.01 000000013%13% 0000000555555 000000065%65% 000000070%70% 211002October 02, 2021 121120+ 🟢 14,833 00000035.635.6 0000008.6%8.6% 197 0.2 0000027.6227.62 6.53
18 Utah 3,205,958 406 000.980.98 🟢 2.37 000000014%14% 000002,8532,853 000000058%58% 000000060%60% 210923September 23, 2021 121120+ 🟢 18,042 00000033.833.8 0000011.0%11.0% 87 0.2 0000018.0918.09 2.69
19 Florida 21,477,737 402 000.830.83 🟢 3.12 000000020%20% 000021,96321,963 000000066%66% 000000073%73% 210828August 28, 2021 -30-30 🟥 19,133 00000039.039.0 0000012.9%12.9% 242 0.4 0000040.7440.74 6.46
20 North Carolina 10,488,084 394 000.900.90 🟢 2.31 000000018%18% 000012,28012,280 000000058%58% 000000063%63% 211216December 16, 2021 121120+ 🟢 12,575 00000045.945.9 0000011.3%11.3% 149 0.5 0000032.6032.60 5.19
21 Kansas 2,913,314 358 000.900.90 🟢 2.37 000000019%19% 000002,1732,173 000000059%59% 000000063%63% 211020October 20, 2021 121120+ 🟢 12,652 00000031.931.9 0000010.6%10.6% 201 0.5 0000023.3123.31 5.83
22 North Dakota 762,062 356 000.970.97 🟢 2.06 000000029%29% 0000000684684 000000050%50% 000000054%54% 220115January 15, 2022 121120+ 🟢 14,273 00000030.930.9 0000008.8%8.8% 208 0.2 0000027.0327.03 4.79
23 Iowa 3,155,070 351 001.131.13 🟥 2.96 000000020%20% 000002,6242,624 000000058%58% 000000063%63% 211024October 24, 2021 121120+ 🟢 13,777 00000035.435.4 0000012.6%12.6% 203 0.2 0000020.3520.35 4.15
24 Pennsylvania 12,801,989 340 001.041.04 3.75 000000015%15% 000011,17711,177 000000071%71% 000000072%72% 211009October 09, 2021 121120+ 🟢 10,871 00000024.024.0 0000008.8%8.8% 225 0.3 0000021.5021.50 5.25
25 Tennessee 6,829,174 340 000.720.72 🟢 1.69 000000024%24% 000007,6137,613 000000052%52% 000000059%59% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 14,372 00000022.522.5 0000019.2%19.2% 211 0.4 0000032.9332.93 5.77
26 Missouri 6,137,428 331 000.900.90 🟢 2.33 000000015%15% 000004,3114,311 000000054%54% 000000062%62% 211111November 11, 2021 121120+ 🟢 13,981 00000027.527.5 0000010.3%10.3% 180 0.5 0000029.6929.69 6.11
27 Oregon 4,217,737 330 000.890.89 🟢 2.67 000000015%15% 000003,7883,788 000000066%66% 000000068%68% 211017October 17, 2021 121120+ 🟢 6,699 00000023.323.3 0000010.4%10.4% 85 0.4 0000024.8024.80 4.37
28 Oklahoma 3,956,971 316 000.780.78 🟢 1.96 000000021%21% 000004,1444,144 000000056%56% 000000062%62% 210925September 25, 2021 121120+ 🟢 14,768 00000025.625.6 0000018.0%18.0% 216 0.6 0000034.8534.85 9.70
29 Wisconsin 5,822,434 304 001.031.03 2.85 000000017%17% 000004,7704,770 000000060%60% 000000064%64% 211230December 30, 2021 121120+ 🟢 14,489 00000036.836.8 0000009.0%9.0% 149 0.2 0000020.3220.32 4.82
30 Ohio 11,689,100 283 000.940.94 🟢 2.23 000000021%21% 000004,9554,955 000000054%54% 000000058%58% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 9,956 00000038.938.9 0000013.0%13.0% 184 0.3 0000033.3733.37 7.04
31 Virginia 8,535,519 268 000.900.90 🟢 2.92 000000014%14% 000012,51312,513 000000068%68% 000000070%70% 211110November 10, 2021 121120+ 🟢 12,758 00000023.823.8 0000010.4%10.4% 144 0.3 0000023.9223.92 5.11
32 New Mexico 2,096,829 268 000.980.98 🟢 3.58 000000015%15% 000001,7701,770 000000072%72% 000000074%74% 210908September 08, 2021 121120+ 🟢 14,197 00000024.924.9 0000007.4%7.4% 223 0.2 0000019.2719.27 2.98
33 Nebraska 1,934,408 265 001.001.00 2.52 000000018%18% 000001,5031,503 000000059%59% 000000061%61% 211001October 01, 2021 121120+ 🟢 14,843 00000020.320.3 0000013.8%13.8% 123 0.1 0000022.4422.44 3.70
34 Minnesota 5,639,632 260 001.071.07 3.10 000000011%11% 000003,2163,216 000000063%63% 000000065%65% 211017October 17, 2021 121120+ 🟢 17,884 00000037.737.7 0000007.2%7.2% 143 0.2 0000014.8814.88 2.19
35 Colorado 5,758,736 257 001.011.01 2.98 000000015%15% 000004,3024,302 000000065%65% 000000066%66% 211127November 27, 2021 121120+ 🟢 11,194 00000024.724.7 0000006.5%6.5% 128 0.2 0000017.3017.30 4.00
36 Mississippi 2,976,149 247 000.680.68 🟢 1.57 000000027%27% 000003,4993,499 000000049%49% 000000059%59% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 7,396 00000011.011.0 0000016.4%16.4% 310 1.3 0000032.2232.22 3.97
37 District of Columbia 705,749 234 001.011.01 3.11 000000010%10% 0000000844844 000000070%70% 000000068%68% 210919September 19, 2021 121120+ 🟢 11,871 00000035.135.1 0000002.8%2.8% 165 0.1 0000020.6920.69 9.35
38 Louisiana 4,648,794 218 000.680.68 🟢 1.57 000000023%23% 000003,5023,502 000000051%51% 000000058%58% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 14,719 00000016.716.7 0000008.7%8.7% 289 1.0 0000025.3425.34 3.88
39 New York 19,453,561 207 000.970.97 🟢 3.27 000000013%13% 000025,91925,919 000000070%70% 000000070%70% 220125January 25, 2022 121120+ 🟢 13,579 00000020.020.0 0000003.8%3.8% 282 0.2 0000013.8913.89 2.30
40 Maryland 6,045,680 202 000.830.83 🟢 2.74 000000012%12% 000005,1055,105 000000070%70% 000000071%71% 211001October 01, 2021 121120+ 🟢 17,430 00000019.019.0 0000006.0%6.0% 170 0.2 0000015.9815.98 5.03
41 Michigan 9,986,857 199 000.940.94 🟢 2.49 000000019%19% 000008,0928,092 000000056%56% 000000063%63% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 11,996 00000022.422.4 0000008.4%8.4% 220 0.2 0000014.9314.93 2.15
42 Maine 1,344,212 192 000.930.93 🟢 3.13 000000012%12% 000001,2351,235 000000073%73% 000000071%71% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 5,470 00000015.115.1 0000004.5%4.5% 73 0.2 0000016.3716.37 2.78
43 Rhode Island 1,059,361 184 001.011.01 4.20 000000013%13% 000001,3591,359 000000074%74% 000000073%73% 211111November 11, 2021 121120+ 🟢 18,431 00000022.622.6 0000002.3%2.3% 265 0.2 0000010.1010.10 1.44
44 Connecticut 3,565,287 178 001.081.08 4.31 000000010%10% 000003,1943,194 000000075%75% 000000074%74% 211022October 22, 2021 121120+ 🟢 14,239 00000012.112.1 0000003.6%3.6% 237 0.1 0000010.0110.01 1.95
45 Illinois 12,671,821 169 000.840.84 🟢 2.60 000000015%15% 000009,8269,826 000000068%68% 000000069%69% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 12,175 00000019.019.0 0000004.2%4.2% 214 0.3 0000015.4615.46 4.44
46 New Jersey 8,882,190 161 000.900.90 🟢 3.08 000000012%12% 000008,7508,750 000000072%72% 000000072%72% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 12,605 00000015.715.7 0000005.8%5.8% 306 0.2 0000013.4013.40 2.93
47 Washington 7,614,893 129 000.560.56 🟢 1.88 000000011%11% 000010,31610,316 000000070%70% 000000071%71% 210920September 20, 2021 121120+ 🟢 6,145 00000023.023.0 0000093.9%93.9% 95 0.4 0000020.1720.17 4.31
48 California 39,512,223 117 000.770.77 🟢 2.59 000000011%11% 000036,95236,952 000000071%71% 000000071%71% 210919September 19, 2021 121120+ 🟢 11,572 00000016.816.8 0000004.0%4.0% 171 0.1 0000016.3616.36 2.71
49 New Hampshire 1,359,711 116 000.900.90 🟢 2.84 000000014%14% 0000000948948 000000069%69% 000000069%69% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 7,356 00000017.617.6 0000004.9%4.9% 107 0.1 0000009.789.78 1.89
50 Vermont 623,989 108 000.930.93 🟢 3.72 000000007%7% 0000000317317 000000077%77% 000000076%76% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 7,182 00000030.630.6 0000003.8%3.8% 46 0.2 0000007.857.85 2.51
51 Massachusetts 6,892,503 102 000.910.91 🟢 3.56 000000007%7% 000004,6994,699 000000077%77% 000000075%75% 211018October 18, 2021 121120+ 🟢 12,698 00000017.317.3 0000002.3%2.3% 268 0.2 0000008.018.01 2.09