Riskiest State Rank State Population Model Est'd Active Infections per 100k Current Reproduction Rate (Rt) Hyp. Pre-Immunity Rt Vaccine Hesitant, % of Adults Daily Vaccines Initiated Vaccines Initiated, % of Pop. Vaccine & Acquired Immunity, % of Pop. Forecasted Date Herd Immunity Achieved Days to Hospital Capacity Total Cases per 100k 14-Day Avg Daily Cases per 100k Positivity Rate Total Deaths per 100k 14-Day Avg Daily Deaths per 100k Hospitalized per 100k 14-Day Avg Daily Hosp Admits per 100k
1 Alaska 731,545 1,506 001.541.54 🟥 3.70 000000020%20% 0000000191191 000000051%51% 000000060%60% 210818August 18, 2021 121120+ 🟢 15,659 00000007.67.6 0000005.1%5.1% 51 0.0 0000008.758.75 1.17
2 District of Columbia 705,749 557 001.651.65 🟥 4.17 000000010%10% 0000000574574 000000063%63% 000000062%62% 210830August 30, 2021 03434 9,951 00000007.37.3 0000001.8%1.8% 162 0.0 0000007.797.79 7.84
3 Florida 21,477,737 532 001.381.38 🟥 3.14 000000020%20% 000023,79123,791 000000056%56% 000000057%57% 210904September 04, 2021 02626 🟥 13,955 00000027.327.3 0000012.3%12.3% 180 0.2 0000019.3119.31 3.85
4 Hawaii 1,415,872 447 001.371.37 🟥 4.75 000000010%10% 0000000415415 000000071%71% 000000072%72% 210903September 03, 2021 121120+ 🟢 3,071 00000007.57.5 0000003.3%3.3% 37 0.0 0000004.384.38 1.10
5 Arkansas 3,017,804 429 001.141.14 🟥 2.20 000000021%21% 000004,5564,556 000000044%44% 000000049%49% 211014October 14, 2021 121120+ 🟢 8,189 00000014.114.1 0000009.9%9.9% 199 0.2 0000022.6022.60 6.71
6 Louisiana 4,648,794 423 001.321.32 🟥 2.50 000000023%23% 000004,5134,513 000000040%40% 000000044%44% 210918September 18, 2021 03838 11,784 00000017.917.9 0000010.7%10.7% 234 0.2 0000012.0212.02 2.68
7 Mississippi 2,976,149 367 001.361.36 🟥 2.65 000000027%27% 000002,7522,752 000000038%38% 000000043%43% 210912September 12, 2021 03232 5,470 00000006.56.5 0000011.4%11.4% 252 0.1 0000013.4713.47 2.72
8 Nevada 3,080,156 352 001.051.05 2.24 000000019%19% 000003,6593,659 000000052%52% 000000055%55% 210907September 07, 2021 121120+ 🟢 15,038 00000019.019.0 0000014.6%14.6% 188 0.2 0000026.9826.98 5.48
9 Missouri 6,137,428 326 001.061.06 2.20 000000015%15% 000007,0337,033 000000047%47% 000000053%53% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 11,342 00000023.723.7 0000013.1%13.1% 155 0.2 0000023.8923.89 5.45
10 Arizona 7,278,717 274 001.241.24 🟥 2.92 000000018%18% 000005,1835,183 000000052%52% 000000055%55% 210920September 20, 2021 06060 12,710 00000011.311.3 0000009.0%9.0% 249 0.1 0000009.929.92 2.52
11 Utah 3,205,958 240 001.101.10 🟥 2.32 000000014%14% 000005,9365,936 000000051%51% 000000051%51% 210923September 23, 2021 121120+ 🟢 16,125 00000014.814.8 0000009.8%9.8% 76 0.1 0000009.059.05 1.43
12 Kansas 2,913,314 240 001.211.21 🟥 2.61 000000019%19% 000002,1002,100 000000050%50% 000000054%54% 211009October 09, 2021 121120+ 🟢 10,487 00000011.311.3 0000009.4%9.4% 179 0.1 0000010.2610.26 2.50
13 Alabama 4,903,185 226 001.311.31 🟥 2.55 000000021%21% 000003,4573,457 000000041%41% 000000046%46% 210928September 28, 2021 05050 11,397 00000009.79.7 0000012.4%12.4% 234 0.0 0000009.759.75 3.37
14 Kentucky 4,467,673 210 001.291.29 🟥 2.71 000000019%19% 000003,0493,049 000000051%51% 000000054%54% 210930September 30, 2021 121120+ 🟢 11,318 00000007.47.4 0000005.6%5.6% 164 0.0 0000007.057.05 3.69
15 Georgia 10,617,423 201 001.361.36 🟥 2.93 000000022%22% 000008,9158,915 000000045%45% 000000047%47% 210920September 20, 2021 02323 🟥 8,022 00000004.84.8 0000005.6%5.6% 203 0.1 0000009.199.19 2.39
16 Maine 1,344,212 186 001.471.47 🟥 4.28 000000012%12% 0000000640640 000000068%68% 000000066%66% 210922September 22, 2021 05858 4,702 00000002.12.1 0000001.6%1.6% 66 0.2 0000003.793.79 7.47
17 Texas 28,995,881 184 001.171.17 🟥 2.55 000000017%17% 000026,69226,692 000000050%50% 000000053%53% 211016October 16, 2021 05050 11,344 00000009.19.1 0000009.6%9.6% 178 0.0 0000010.8910.89 2.92
18 Idaho 1,787,065 174 001.211.21 🟥 2.33 000000025%25% 0000000731731 000000040%40% 000000043%43% 211006October 06, 2021 05454 13,080 00000008.68.6 0000007.3%7.3% 122 0.1 0000007.057.05 0.83
19 Indiana 6,732,219 174 001.191.19 🟥 2.52 000000018%18% 000003,9183,918 000000046%46% 000000050%50% 211005October 05, 2021 06363 12,591 00000004.74.7 0000005.7%5.7% 207 0.0 0000006.956.95 1.83
20 Oklahoma 3,956,971 173 001.021.02 1.99 000000021%21% 000003,5453,545 000000046%46% 000000051%51% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 12,305 00000011.611.6 0000017.1%17.1% 189 0.1 0000011.5211.52 3.17
21 Illinois 12,671,821 165 001.251.25 🟥 3.47 000000015%15% 000011,83211,832 000000061%61% 000000062%62% 210927September 27, 2021 06767 10,927 00000004.84.8 0000002.5%2.5% 204 0.1 0000004.364.36 2.59
22 Montana 1,068,778 162 001.101.10 🟥 2.35 000000024%24% 0000000495495 000000049%49% 000000051%51% 211016October 16, 2021 121120+ 🟢 13,657 00000005.15.1 0000005.1%5.1% 158 0.2 0000005.615.61 2.19
23 New York 19,453,561 159 001.311.31 🟥 4.22 000000013%13% 000017,49617,496 000000062%62% 000000065%65% 210921September 21, 2021 05454 12,322 00000004.24.2 0000001.5%1.5% 275 0.0 0000003.983.98 1.11
24 North Carolina 10,488,084 154 001.291.29 🟥 2.93 000000018%18% 000007,3727,372 000000050%50% 000000051%51% 210926September 26, 2021 04343 9,648 00000007.17.1 0000005.4%5.4% 129 0.0 0000005.005.00 1.55
25 Rhode Island 1,059,361 153 001.591.59 🟥 4.45 000000013%13% 0000000780780 000000066%66% 000000066%66% 210923September 23, 2021 01616 🟥 17,210 00000002.62.6 0000000.9%0.9% 258 0.0 0000006.426.42 0.25
26 Ohio 11,689,100 152 001.281.28 🟥 3.16 000000021%21% 000005,2235,223 000000049%49% 000000054%54% 211004October 04, 2021 05555 8,296 00000002.42.4 0000002.2%2.2% 175 0.1 0000005.865.86 2.17
27 Iowa 3,155,070 151 001.221.22 🟥 2.69 000000020%20% 000001,7391,739 000000052%52% 000000055%55% 211014October 14, 2021 121120+ 🟢 11,904 00000005.85.8 0000006.8%6.8% 196 0.0 0000006.286.28 2.21
28 Wyoming 578,759 150 000.950.95 🟢 1.67 000000031%31% 0000000238238 000000041%41% 000000044%44% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 9,450 00000008.08.0 0000005.1%5.1% 132 0.2 0000010.3710.37 3.11
29 Washington 7,614,893 146 001.151.15 🟥 3.05 000000011%11% 000004,9634,963 000000063%63% 000000064%64% 210825August 25, 2021 121120+ 🟢 4,326 00000003.53.5 0000002.9%2.9% 80 0.1 0000006.706.70 2.36
30 New Jersey 8,882,190 143 001.291.29 🟥 4.40 000000012%12% 000007,8917,891 000000065%65% 000000067%67% 210925September 25, 2021 06262 11,464 00000004.84.8 0000002.3%2.3% 299 0.1 0000003.743.74 1.70
31 Tennessee 6,829,174 141 001.231.23 🟥 2.40 000000024%24% 000004,6784,678 000000044%44% 000000047%47% 211013October 13, 2021 06464 11,708 00000002.72.7 0000007.2%7.2% 185 0.1 0000005.995.99 1.09
32 California 39,512,223 137 001.331.33 🟥 3.54 000000011%11% 000039,20739,207 000000063%63% 000000063%63% 210930September 30, 2021 06767 9,722 00000007.07.0 0000003.5%3.5% 161 0.0 0000005.505.50 1.57
33 West Virginia 1,792,147 136 001.011.01 2.13 000000020%20% 0000000302302 000000046%46% 000000052%52% 211019October 19, 2021 121120+ 🟢 11,102 00000004.54.5 0000003.2%3.2% 163 0.1 0000005.025.02 4.23
34 New Mexico 2,096,829 129 001.191.19 🟥 3.22 000000015%15% 000001,4081,408 000000064%64% 000000064%64% 210910September 10, 2021 121120+ 🟢 13,185 00000004.44.4 0000003.4%3.4% 209 0.0 0000004.964.96 2.08
35 Pennsylvania 12,801,989 128 001.391.39 🟥 3.90 000000015%15% 000010,51110,511 000000064%64% 000000065%65% 211007October 07, 2021 07373 9,796 00000002.02.0 0000002.0%2.0% 217 0.1 0000003.763.76 2.60
36 Maryland 6,045,680 122 001.051.05 2.78 000000012%12% 000004,8524,852 000000064%64% 000000064%64% 210902September 02, 2021 121120+ 🟢 15,778 00000003.03.0 0000001.7%1.7% 162 0.0 0000004.054.05 3.10
37 Delaware 973,764 119 001.191.19 🟥 2.92 000000013%13% 0000000662662 000000060%60% 000000061%61% 210914September 14, 2021 121120+ 🟢 13,040 00000003.63.6 0000002.2%2.2% 174 0.0 0000004.214.21 4.05
38 Nebraska 1,934,408 115 001.141.14 🟥 2.45 000000018%18% 000001,1641,164 000000053%53% 000000055%55% 211009October 09, 2021 121120+ 🟢 13,537 00000006.76.7 0000010.3%10.3% 118 0.1 0000004.964.96 1.11
39 Colorado 5,758,736 114 001.021.02 2.47 000000015%15% 000003,6343,634 000000059%59% 000000060%60% Not Achieved. More vaccinations needed. 🟥 121120+ 🟢 9,641 00000006.26.2 0000003.4%3.4% 120 0.1 0000006.816.81 1.86
40 Virginia 8,535,519 113 001.241.24 🟥 3.25 000000014%14% 000006,5016,501 000000061%61% 000000063%63% 211005October 05, 2021 121120+ 🟢 11,198 00000004.34.3 0000004.6%4.6% 135 0.0 0000003.483.48 1.71
41 South Dakota 884,659 111 001.091.09 2.30 000000021%21% 0000000505505 000000052%52% 000000054%54% 211122November 22, 2021 121120+ 🟢 8,048 00000003.73.7 0000006.7%6.7% 231 0.0 0000003.173.17 1.67
42 Oregon 4,217,737 109 001.111.11 🟥 2.72 000000015%15% 000002,6002,600 000000060%60% 000000060%60% 210825August 25, 2021 121120+ 🟢 4,952 00000005.95.9 0000003.2%3.2% 67 0.1 0000004.344.34 1.47
43 North Dakota 762,062 107 001.041.04 2.11 000000029%29% 0000000240240 000000045%45% 000000049%49% 211110November 10, 2021 121120+ 🟢 13,144 00000001.31.3 0000001.9%1.9% 202 0.1 0000004.334.33 1.04
44 South Carolina 5,148,714 93 001.241.24 🟥 2.43 000000018%18% 000003,3743,374 000000046%46% 000000049%49% 211025October 25, 2021 06767 12,374 00000006.66.6 0000006.1%6.1% 192 0.1 0000004.234.23 1.00
45 Minnesota 5,639,632 84 001.281.28 🟥 3.09 000000011%11% 000002,8962,896 000000058%58% 000000060%60% 211022October 22, 2021 121120+ 🟢 15,965 00000005.35.3 0000002.2%2.2% 137 0.0 0000002.702.70 0.74
46 Connecticut 3,565,287 83 001.431.43 🟥 4.43 000000010%10% 000003,0093,009 000000069%69% 000000069%69% 211015October 15, 2021 121120+ 🟢 13,354 00000002.62.6 0000001.4%1.4% 232 0.0 0000001.991.99 0.87
47 Vermont 623,989 58 001.321.32 🟥 4.81 000000007%7% 0000000314314 000000075%75% 000000073%73% 211103November 03, 2021 121120+ 🟢 5,650 00000002.22.2 0000001.1%1.1% 40 0.0 0000000.480.48 0.45
48 Michigan 9,986,857 55 001.191.19 🟥 2.96 000000019%19% 000005,0565,056 000000052%52% 000000057%57% 211015October 15, 2021 06060 10,947 00000002.42.4 0000002.4%2.4% 212 0.0 0000003.043.04 0.63
49 Wisconsin 5,822,434 44 001.291.29 🟥 3.33 000000017%17% 000003,1173,117 000000055%55% 000000056%56% 211021October 21, 2021 06868 12,814 00000003.23.2 0000002.5%2.5% 141 0.1 0000002.162.16 1.06
50 New Hampshire 1,359,711 43 001.151.15 🟥 3.07 000000014%14% 0000000751751 000000064%64% 000000063%63% 211205December 05, 2021 121120+ 🟢 6,112 00000002.02.0 0000001.6%1.6% 102 0.1 0000001.471.47 0.50
51 Massachusetts 6,892,503 43 001.451.45 🟥 4.66 000000007%7% 000004,5384,538 000000072%72% 000000070%70% 211029October 29, 2021 08383 11,554 00000003.43.4 0000001.0%1.0% 262 0.0 0000001.801.80 1.18